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Diketene is widely used in medicine, pesticides, dyes and other fields. Its consumption structure is about 50% for pharmaceuticals, 38% for pesticides, 7% for dyes, and 5% for others. In recent years, due to the continuous increase in downstream product development, the continuous expansion of the application field, and the continuous increase in consumption, the market for diketene is excellent and the price is rising. Driven by the continuous soaring prices, the domestic new-building and expansion of diketene surged higher than a wave. From 2002 to 2005, the production capacity of diketene in China has increased from 20,000 tons to 65,000 tons. It is estimated that in 2006, Will reach 90,000 tons.
However, since the beginning of this year, with the rise in international crude oil prices, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, the production cost of diketene has also risen, and the cost of tons has increased by more than 3,000 yuan; at the same time, the demand for its derivatives and downstream products has not increased, and the market competition has intensified. Continued low operation, the market sales price has dropped from 21,000 yuan/ton last year to 17,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. At the same time, there are still many diketene companies in China that are actively building or expanding. It is understood that only three companies in the Yangtze River Delta area have completed the new construction, and another three companies plan to expand their installations.
In an interview with a reporter, experts from China National Chemical Information Consulting Company stated that currently most of the domestic manufacturers are producing diketene according to the traditional acetic acid pyrolysis method, which has a small scale, high energy consumption, and poor product quality. Compared with foreign companies, domestic companies still have considerable gaps in scale and technical content. When the market capacity is limited, there are risks in building new or expanding installations. Be cautious.
At present, the production of diketene has grown to more than 30, with an annual production capacity of 90,000 tons, while the actual annual domestic demand is about 40,000 tons. Because diketene is a flammable, explosive and toxic product, it is difficult to export for long-distance transportation and the product needs to be digested in the domestic market. At present, the production capacity and demand have been seriously unbalanced. It is predicted that by 2007, after the newly-built and expanded domestic diketene plant is completed and put into production, the total output of diketene in China will reach 120,000 tons. The “explosive†growth of diketene production is far faster than the market growth rate, and the contradiction of supply exceeding demand will increase further, which will seriously affect the overall diketene industry in China. To this end, companies should attach great importance to earnestly conduct market research and fully demonstrate that they can no longer blindly build or expand diketene projects.
At present, the domestic supply of diketene is in excess of demand, the market competition is fierce, and industry profits are significantly reduced. However, many companies still want to build or expand diketene plants. Experts suggest that the risk of diketene market can not be ignored, the project should be built or expanded to avoid following the trend.