Fuel consumption is not up to standard cars increase 13 times double-delay energy-saving investment

In another 3 months, the assessment of the average fuel consumption (CAFC) points for auto companies will officially start. However, for most domestic auto companies, the binding of fuel consumption standards is decreasing more and more quickly.

At the end of 2017, the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET) released the “2017 China Passenger Car Fuel Consumption Development Report”, pointing out that the new double-track system has provided a variety of channels for car companies to offset negative CAFC credits. Coupled with the temptation of the market profits of the SUVs with higher fuel consumption and the increasing demand for banned fuel vehicles, traditional automobile companies may be losing their enthusiasm for upgrading energy-saving technologies in fuel vehicles.

The Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET) is the only non-governmental organization to participate in the assessment of the construction and implementation of China's passenger vehicle fuel economy standards system. This annual report supported by the Energy Foundation is the seventh public release of iCET. Passenger car fuel consumption report.

The report pointed out that after China's fuel consumption standards entered four stages in 2016, the company’s fuel consumption was not up to standard. In 2016, the proportion of China's domestic auto companies that did not meet the standard oil consumption was more than one-third; non-compliance enterprises in the imported car sector accounted for nearly half. The production of non-compliance vehicles was 4.68 million vehicles, which was 14 times that of 2015. Among them, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and Changan Ford's fuel consumption did not reach nearly one million vehicles. From 2013 to 2016, the self-owned enterprises continued to see a rise in fuel consumption.

However, except for the Great Wall, negative pressure for compensation from other companies is not significant. "On the one hand, the production of high-quality, fuel-efficient models to meet the market, on the other hand, through the production of small-scale low-performance electric vehicle products, or equity in low-end electric vehicle prices, to achieve fuel consumption and new energy vehicle integration points, so that, It can neither improve the energy conservation of traditional vehicles nor promote the application of advanced electric vehicle technology,” said Kang Liping, chief editor of the report.

According to the report, from the point of view that the new vehicle fuel consumption declared by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2016 has reached the standard, the company has sufficient technical reserves. However, the lack of effective rewards and penalties for cost pressure and fuel consumption management may significantly reduce the incentive for traditional vehicle energy-saving upgrades and delay the upgrading of traditional vehicle energy-saving technologies. With the implementation of double points system, this situation may intensify.

The increased fuel consumption of SUVs is "easily" compensated by new energy vehicles

In January 2016, China formally entered the fourth phase of the implementation of vehicle fuel consumption standards. From 2016 to 2020, the average fuel consumption targets for new vehicles were 6.7 liters, 6.4 liters, 6 liters, 5.5 liters, and 5 litres respectively. The goal of "Made in China 2025" is that by 2020, the overall fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China (including new energy passenger vehicles) will drop to 5 litres/100 km and will drop to about 4 liters/100 km in 2025.

Although the overall fuel consumption of the first three stages of car prices continued to decline, but entering the fourth stage, the improvement of standards and the trend of vehicle weight and large-scale, hinder the decline in passenger car fuel consumption. This trend is clearly manifested in the market, and the company's product strategy is focused on SUVs.

In 2016, after four consecutive years of rapid growth, SUVs and MPVs have accounted for nearly half of the passenger car market share. The direct result is that, from 2009 to 2016, the domestic vehicle trimming quality increased by approximately 13%, of which the trim quality of autonomous car companies increased by approximately 22%, resulting in an increase in the average fuel consumption of domestic cars by 0.5-1L in 2016, and the average fuel consumption of self-owned brands. 0.7-1.5L increase. The reduction in fuel consumption brought about by the improvement of energy-saving technologies was swallowed up.

"In 2016, CAFC's positive points were concentrated in new energy vehicle manufacturing enterprises, and negative points were concentrated in large-scale SUVs and MPVs as production enterprises with major product structures." Conley said. The autonomous vehicle enterprises that split the most dividends in the SUV tide are also hard-hit areas where the fuel consumption is not up to the standard. In 2016, the domestic car CAFC negative points were mainly generated by two major automakers - Great Wall and Changan. The Great Wall was the leading vehicle manufacturer of SUVs. Changan made up for 51.9% increase in SUV in 2016 to compensate for the decline in other sectors. In addition, there are more than 100,000 negative integration gap Cheetah and SAIC GM Beisheng also produce SUV-based. In addition, Sichuan FAW Toyota, GAC Fiat, Changan Ford, Brilliance Jinbei, South East Automotive and other car companies also appear in the CAFC negative points of 5-10 million.

In addition, from 2006 to 2016, the annual average fuel consumption of the joint ventures decreased by 2.2%, while the average annual decline of the self-owned enterprises was less than 1%, especially in the 2013-2016 years, the fuel consumption of independent enterprises rose.

However, all these "pressures" will be resolved under the "funding" of new energy vehicles. The report shows that although the number of non-compliance companies has increased significantly, the overall performance of CAFC in 2016 still looks “spectacular”: In 2016, the average fuel consumption of vehicles sold nationwide was 6.56 L/100km, a decrease of nearly 7% year-on-year. However, in reality, the reduction caused by the "concessional accounting" of new energy vehicles accounted for two-thirds, and the decline caused by fuel vehicle energy-saving technologies accounted for only one-third.

According to the Measures for Calculating the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles promulgated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2013, new energy vehicles of new energy vehicles or affiliated companies may be included in CAFC's accounting, and the output or import volume of new energy vehicles may be treated multiple times. Discounts are calculated based on multiples of 5, 3, and 2 year by year from 2015 to 2025. The increase in the output base significantly reduces the actual value of the enterprise CAFC and also offsets the application of energy-saving technologies.

"The combined statistics and dilution of new energy vehicles have made it possible to conceal the advantages of car companies that are committed to reducing fuel consumption through energy-efficient technologies." Kang Liping said that in 2016, CAFC was ranked among the top 10 car companies in terms of points, with the exception of FAW-Volkswagen. In addition, they are all new energy automobile manufacturers. In 2012-2015, CAFC's automotive companies with a large amount of credit include FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, Changan Ford, BMW Brilliance, Dongfeng Nissan, and other traditional joint ventures with higher oil consumption and higher output.

On the other hand, for the self-owned brand companies that have been in a weak position in the energy-saving technology competition, the “quick assistance” for fuel consumption assessment of new energy vehicles is clearly “send in the snow”.

In 2016, the fuel consumption standards of the six car-produced electric vehicles based on self-owned brands have reached the 2020 target in advance. However, Kang Liping stressed that if you do not consider the benefits of new energy vehicles in the CAFC accounting, some companies are not optimistic about the compliance standards, such as Jiangnan Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile.

"Through the CAFC calculations of the 12 major electric vehicle companies, the calculation of new energy vehicles may lead to a 3% to 68% decrease in the actual value of CAFC," said Kang Liping.

For the independent car companies with negative points, compliance is also very easy. Taking Chang'an Automobile as an example, some of its negative points can be carried forward through positive points in previous years, as well as new energy positive points generated by the company, and can also receive positive points from related companies under the Chang'an Group.

Double-entry or aggressive enthusiasm for car companies to apply energy-saving technologies

“Actually, the four-stage bicycle fuel consumption limit has been tightened by 30-40% over the three phases, but in 2016, new models announced, except for individual imported models, have reached the limit value. In 2015, there was about 1/4 fashion consumption. The new car does not reach this limit," said Kang Liping. It can be seen that the company’s energy-saving technology reserves are relatively adequate, but it is insufficient in the application of market products. She believes that traditional cars still have 35-40% energy-saving potential.

The implementation of the double-point system will intensify the current status of "Tibetan Technology" in automotive companies. According to the "Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Passenger Cars and New Energy Vehicles" promulgated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2017 (referred to as the "Double-point System"), the CAFC's points assessment will start in April 2018.

The report emphasizes that behind the “parallel management” mechanism of fuel consumption and new energy points, it is actually cross-management. According to the double-point system, the CAFC's negative credits include the positive credits carried forward over the years, the transfer of related companies, and the 1:1 compensation for new energy vehicles. The pressure on negative CAFC credits is very small.

Taking the Great Wall with the most negative scores in 2016 as an example, although the non-related company points were transferable, the Great Wall at that time was able to perform compliance only by purchasing new energy vehicle points, but after Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd. took a 25% stake in electric vehicle manufacturing company Yujie in 2017 The pressure on fuel consumption assessment has been solved.

Kang Liping said that the double-integration mechanism will bring three phenomena that are different from the original intention. First, companies do not need to upgrade energy-saving technologies to reverse fuel consumption failures. Such as Jiangling Holdings, Jiangnan Automobile and Dongfeng Automobile, through the production of low-end electric vehicles to balance the high fuel consumption models, the future may be followed by some companies.

Secondly, the CAFC non-compliance enterprises will become a new energy company and become a trend, and then there will be a similar diversification of equity holdings in the Internet industry. Third, the post-joint venture era, including JAC and Volkswagen, Daimler and BAIC New Energy, Ford and Zotye, Renault-Nissan Alliance and Dongfeng Motor, will emerge.

All of the above benefits may be much greater than the benefits of traditional energy-saving upgrades. Under such a mechanism, the driving force for energy conservation and upgrading of traditional vehicles may be drastically reduced, and the improvement of traditional vehicle energy conservation technologies may be delayed.

According to Kang Liping, during the period of 2012-2016, the decline in CAFC of domestic automobile enterprises was mainly achieved through the application of more energy-saving technologies, including lighter, smaller-scale adjustment of product structure and energy-saving technologies (hybrid, idle start and stop, transmission technology, Efficient engine, etc.) The three joint ventures of Beijing Benz, Guangzhou Automobile Toyota and Tianjin FAW Toyota have seen a 25-30% reduction in fuel consumption over the past five years, both of which benefit from the application of advanced energy-saving technologies such as product structure adjustment and lightweighting.

However, the investment and application cost of this energy-saving technology are huge. According to industry insiders, under the pressure of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles and the pressure of new energy targets that companies are assigned to, choosing a shortcut under the double-credit system may become the choice for most companies.

For this reason, Energy recommends at the Traffic Innovation Center that when the double-integration mechanism is proven to hinder the improvement of traditional vehicle energy conservation, the new energy vehicle integration mechanism should be separated from the fuel consumption integration mechanism and returned to two independent mechanisms. At the same time, it is necessary to study the introduction of economic rewards and penalties as soon as possible and not rely solely on mandatory administrative orders. In addition, it is necessary to establish a sound point audit mechanism to avoid falsification that may occur in the process of complex point transactions, transfer, carryover, and compensation.

In fact, the grasp of new energy support has always been a controversial topic. As early as 2016, experts reminded that large-scale traditional car companies, including joint venture car companies and automobile groups, are not enthusiastic about investing in new energy vehicles because the preferential accounting of new energy vehicles in the CAFC is also considered to have prompted the increase of car prices. The meaning of the new energy vehicle investment.

However, Kang Liping believes that "combining efforts to improve the fuel efficiency of automobiles and promote the development of new energy vehicles" is the beginning of implementing the dual-point system. In the next 10 to 20 years, fuel vehicles will still be the mainstay of transportation. It is not a good thing for companies to abandon their investment in energy-saving technologies and high-efficiency power for fuel vehicles at an early date. This is not a good thing for the overall goal of reducing energy consumption and environmental protection.