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As the car market approaches the year-end inventory, the dissonance behind the continued blowout appears to continue.
According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to October, 3.561 million automobiles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 34.25%; sales of motor vehicles were 3,478,800, a year-on-year increase of 29.79%, and the difference between production and sales reached 82,200.
In the part of the largest increase in production and sales, a total of 1.5731 million cars were produced, an increase of 82.77% year-on-year, and sales were 150.74.
Ten thousand vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 67.67%, the difference between these two data reached 65,700 vehicles. The topic of overheating in China's auto industry once again surfaced.
The increase in inventory of key enterprises has been a trend from the perspective of the growth momentum of car production. Statistics show that the cumulative increase from January to March is 127%, while it fell to 82.77% from January to October. Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of China Automotive Industry Consultation and Development Co., Ltd., analyzed that the monthly production of passenger cars rose slightly from 160,000 units in March. Although September exceeded 180,000 units, setting a new monthly high, the production of cars in October still returned to 16 More than 10,000 cars. Based on this level of forecast, the annual production of cars will be around 1.9 million, an increase of 73% year-on-year.
From the statistics of the first 10 months of this year, the difference between the production and sales of Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen has exceeded 10,000, and Tianjin Auto is also close to 10,000. Although the relative amount of inventory is not astonishing relative to the rapid growth of production and sales, in terms of its absolute quantity, it cannot be overestimated for the entire industry or for individual companies.
Jia Xinguang believes that if the monthly production of cars continues to collapse, the growth rate of cars will decline further next year; while the production of some brands of cars has decreased significantly from the previous month, indicating that manufacturers have been depressing output in order to adjust inventory.
Limited inventory is not a bad thing. However, for the issue of inventory, the reporter received feedback at the recent Guangzhou Auto Show. A representative of the manufacturers with high stocks believes that this figure is not too large for the entire market. The models with more inventory are often hot models. The reason for inventory is that there is a structural time difference between supply and demand. With the arrival of the year-end sales period, inventory will be slowly digested.
Shao Qihui, the deputy director of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the Economic Commission, believes that China is currently in the start-up phase of a new round of economic growth cycle. The rapid growth of the automobile industry will be one of the main driving forces. If the automobile industry is rushed to overheat due to inventory problems, its implementation of reverse regulation will not be conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy.
Zhang Xiaoji, chairman of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, said that inventory is not necessarily a bad thing. Supply exceeds demand and leads to survival of the fittest. The shortage economy can only allow companies to become inert. Only through full and equal competition can the auto industry promote enterprise progress and squeeze out excessive profits.
The inventory is not good, can not simply look at the total amount of the automotive market, to examine whether private consumer demand is excess, whether competitive enterprises are overcapacity, whether the excess of popular models. To a certain extent, the seller’s era can sell more than production, and the buyer’s era requires the production to be slightly more than the sales, so that the range of choice can be greatly broadened. Perhaps this is the precursor to the era of the automobile industry going to the buyer. Our reporter Guo Bin's production and sales of major car manufacturers from January to October (unit: vehicle)
Manufacturer output volume difference Shanghai Volkswagen 334426 316307 18119
FAW-Volkswagen 242042 224255 17787
Shanghai GM 131553 157651 -26098
Tianjin Auto 141524 132462 9062
Shenlong Motors 90462 86158 4304
Guangzhou Honda 92283 90972 1311
Changan Automobile 82535 84009 -1474
Chery Automobile 63439 56138 7301
Dongfeng Motor 53181 53041 140
Nanjing Auto 31307 30465 842
Gold Cup Automotive 24124 21528 2596
Hafei Motors 28247 26899 1348
Yueda KIA 39378 39220 158
Beijing Hyundai 43705 42287 1418