China's Trucks Have a Good Expectation for the Spring Festival

In January 2012, the domestic heavy-duty truck market delivered 34,000 sales, a year-on-year drop of 60% from 85,000.

The reason why the heavy truck's first month's opening is so bleak is that there are two reasons for industry insiders to analyze: First, the first month of Spring Festival, the demand for car users has been greatly reduced; Second, the heavy truck manufacturers are cautious about 2012, and did not continue the practice of inventory preparation at the end of the year. .

Despite unfavorable conditions in the spring, although the domestic heavy truck market declined in January this year, the pattern remains unchanged.

It is understood that in January, Dongfeng Motor (600006) sold about 9,000 heavy trucks (medium and heavy trucks totaled about 13,000 vehicles), a decrease of 54.9% year-on-year; FAW Group sold about 7,400 heavy trucks (a total of 9300 heavy-duty trucks). The year-on-year decrease was 58.9%; China Heavy Duty Truck (000951) sold about 7,200 heavy trucks, a decrease of 57.2% year-on-year. Futian Auman sold about 2,100 heavy trucks in January, Shaanxi Automobile Group sold about 2,300 heavy trucks (2,274 units of Shaanxi Heavy Truck), and its sales volume decreased by 65.1% and 62.2% year-on-year respectively.

In addition, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, SAIC Iveco Hongyan and Jianghuai respectively sold approximately 1,550 heavy trucks, 550 vehicles, and 700 vehicles, a decrease of 68.2%, 86%, and 81.9% year-on-year.

“Although China’s heavy-duty vehicles still have good prospects, the increase is relatively limited. In the next 3 to 5 years, it is unlikely that there will be over one million heavy-duty vehicles. In 2012, the sales volume of heavy-duty vehicles will not exceed 850,000.” According to Tan Xiuqing, deputy general manager of Shandong Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd., this year's world economic situation is complex. As the European debt crisis spreads, emerging economies are facing high inflation and economic growth, under the influence of turbulence in the Middle East and North Africa, China’s heavy truck companies’ exports will be affected. Impact; From the domestic situation, in the case of slowdown of infrastructure and unrestrained regulation of real estate, although the government proposes similar policies such as lowering bank reserve requirements, allowing local governments to borrow and supporting small and micro enterprises, it is still not enough. Support this year's heavy truck market. China's heavy-duty truck market has already gone "good fortune" in 2010.

In the face of such a dismal market, some analysts frankly stated that apart from the adverse effect of the Spring Festival's premature and high base on sales volume, the current downturn in the heavy truck industry is fundamentally speaking because the macroeconomic level has not seen a clear rebound. Good signal.

The challenge is even more opportunity. “In 2010, its data is not of much reference value, so the year-on-year statistics for 2010 will not be of much significance,” said the head of the sales department of a truck company. In 2011, after a series of favorable policies were withdrawn from the market, sales volume dropped naturally, and some companies could be comprehended by the false glory of 2010. At that time, cars were sold in the domestic market, and who would spend more time and energy To open up overseas markets, foreign countries may not have a 'care' policy, and it is more difficult to open up overseas markets and consolidate overseas markets. However, if we look closely at the export data of domestic truck companies in recent years, especially the data of companies that have always insisted on cultivating overseas markets, we should say that Since the global financial crisis in 2008, it has gradually recovered."

Related sector securities analysts believe that the trucks and even the entire commercial vehicle industry, in the case of almost the overall decline in the domestic market in 2011, but in the overseas market to achieve results, to achieve nearly 30% increase over the same period, is subject to national policy and domestic competitive pressure plus The result of the effect of multiple factors such as large.

In this regard, the industry analysts pointed out that: Truck companies in the development of overseas markets is better, the main market changes in recent years is relatively small. In 2008, the top five destination countries for truck exports were Vietnam, Algeria, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. In 2009, there was little change. In 2010, Chile replaced Iraq in the top five; in 2011, exports to Algeria were very strong, while Brazil was Replace Chile as the core market for South America. Exports from Chile and Peru are relatively stable, indicating that trucks are taking a strong advantage in overseas markets. In 2012, it is expected to continue the upward trend. However, the export market for trucks is relatively decentralized and concentrated in developing and underdeveloped countries and regions. In the high-end products sector, the competitiveness of China's truck companies is still difficult to match with traditional truck companies in Europe and America. Therefore, there are great opportunities and space for truck exports in 2012, and the challenges are daunting.

Although the favorable factors may be expected to be short-term, sales in the heavy truck industry are unlikely to show a clear upward trend, but in some people in the industry, it seems that the signs of improvement are beginning to show. "I believe that with the start of construction of fixed asset investment projects, after the first lunar month, our heavy truck market in this region is expected to start." An heavy truck dealer in Inner Mongolia said with expectation.

According to related sources, in February, orders for some domestic heavy truck companies began to rebound sharply. From this, he also judged that the sales season for heavy trucks is expected to come in February. This point has also been confirmed by the change in the number of barometer orders from the heavy truck industry in Shaanxi.

Recently, Li Dakai, chairman of Fast Group, said that in January, the order volume of Fast Transmission was only 30,000 units, but this figure had increased to 45,000 units by February. "It can be seen that the heavy truck market has shown signs of stabilization," said Li Dakai.

Although such judgments are pleasing, the more general view is that with the gradual improvement of the fundamentals of the heavy truck industry, the “spring” of the heavy truck market will not be available until the second quarter.

“As the inflationary pressure eases and the macroeconomic acceleration bottoms out, the central government has set the tone for stable growth, price control, and structural adjustment, and implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In this context, the second quarter After that, the investment in infrastructure will improve, and related needs such as logistics will also gradually pick up, and the combination of affordable housing and water conservancy projects on the schedule will also make the demand for logistics vehicles and special vehicles for engineering construction. Get boosted.” Analyst Bai Xiaolan, an analyst with Guotai Junan Automotive, believes.

Some analysts believe that last year's worst-performing tractors have gradually stabilized since the third quarter. Next, with the gradual emergence of logistics costs, such as the transmission of freight rates, excessive transportation capacity, and credit relaxation, it is expected that the demand for tractor-trailers will rebound this year.