Faster new threat to new opponents

The successful joint venture between ZF and Rubbing, the gradual adoption of domestic transmissions by domestic automakers and the stepping down of foreign transmission giants... All this will encroach on the heavy-duty transmission market that is almost monopolized by Fast.

For those who teach people to fish, when people who often buy fish eat themselves and fish, the result is predictable. Fast is faced with this situation. It can be said that the cooperation between Zhaifang and ZF on the impact of Fast's leading edge in heavy-duty vehicle transmissions is not fatal. The bigger threat is that OEMs have owned their own transmission plants.

Heavy truck "three big" independent portal
At present, domestic heavy-duty vehicle transmissions are almost driven by Shaanxi Fast Automotive Transmission Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Fast), Qijiang Gear Transmission Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as fangs), China Heavy Duty Truck Transmission and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Datong Gear. Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Big Tooth), Harbin FAW Gearbox Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as FAW Harbin Gear) and FAW Liberation Transmission Co., Ltd. and other major manufacturers monopolized.
FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles and China National Heavy Duty Truck were once the main users of Fast, and today these three domestic heavy truck manufacturers have started to develop and produce their own heavy-duty transmissions for the sake of business development. Perhaps the market pattern of heavy-duty transmissions will gradually be transformed into a new situation by the fast-changing of the Fastest.
On November 18, 2008, the heavy truck leader China National Heavy Duty Truck implemented the strategic restructuring of the DaZhao Group, which has since become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sinotruk. Previously, heavy truck has a transmission manufacturer - Jinan Transmission Factory, transmission self-sufficiency rate reached 40%, and its largest supplier is Shaanxi Fast.
In December 2008, the 14-speed heavy transmission produced by Dongfeng Motor Transmission Co., Ltd. formally went offline. In fact, as early as 2006, the Dongfeng heavy-duty truck transmission project was started. The company began with a relatively low-tech mid-range transmission and gradually developed its 9-speed and higher-heavy-duty transmissions. The pace of self-produced transmissions also accelerated. The largest customer of Dongfeng Motor was Dongfeng Motor. After becoming a subsidiary of CNHTC, will Dongfeng purchase a large number of transmissions from competitors CNHTC? These are very variable.
On July 15th, 2009, the CA10TA double countershaft heavy-duty transmission developed by FAW Jiefang Transmission Co., Ltd. was officially put into production. In 2011, the production capacity of double countershaft transmissions will reach 30,000 units. Since 2000, the heavy trucks of FAW Liberation began to use Fast's heavy-duty transmissions, and its subordinate Ha teeth mainly produce medium-sized transmissions. Its transmission subsidiary mainly produces medium and heavy-duty transmissions. In the future, the double countershaft heavy-duty transmission will gradually become the main supplier of the heavy-duty twin countershaft transmissions of FAW Jiefang Company.
The prevailing analysis in the industry believes that heavy-duty trucks need to run in after reorganization of large gears. If large gears are used to build a transmission for heavy-duty trucks, it takes 2 to 3 years from R&D to testing to mass production. Therefore, the impact on sales volume of Fast heavy transmissions will not appear in the short term. FAW Jiefang Transmission and Dongfeng Motor Transmission Co., Ltd. are still in their infancy, and will not affect the production and sales of Fast Transmission for some time.
In spite of this, in order to ensure the safety of the industry chain and greater profit margins, many large commercial vehicle groups tend to make their own key parts, from FAW Liberation, Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. prepares to produce its own transmissions, and then Big Tooth is acquired by CNHTC. explain the problem. Internationally renowned heavy-duty truck companies, such as Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, etc., have mostly produced their own heavy-duty truck powertrains for their own independent production. At present, Chinaâ€™s heavy truck companies are merely repeating the path taken by overseas truck giants in the past.
Therefore, although Fast currently occupying an absolute leading position will continue to be in a leading position for some time to come, it is important to know that the heavy truck production of Sinotruk, FAW Jiefang and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles ranks among the top three in the industry. Having their own heavy-duty transmission plants and series products, respectively, the result is bound to squeeze Faster's market share.

Eaton ZF aggressive Eaton ZF is the world's leading supplier of transmission systems, respectively, monopolizing the US and European heavy truck transmission market Eaton transmissions are dual countershafts, while ZF transmissions are mostly single countershafts.
Fast's technology is derived from Eaton, and the technology of dental caries originates from ZF, which is common sense in the industry. Although Fast and Cao Yue have become leaders in the industry, the development of Eaton and ZF in China is not smooth.
In the 1980s, after entering the Chinese market, the Eaton Corporation of the United States had declared to be the head of China's heavy-duty transmissions. However, due to the excessively high price and poor brand promotion, it had to transfer the technology to Shaanxi Fast. In 2004, Eaton had a joint venture with FAW Liberation but still did not have a taste.
The sole establishment of a factory in China has become a common choice for both parties. Since 2007, ZF has established a number of factories in Suzhou, Hangzhou and other places in China, and established a Chinese headquarters in Shanghai. Eaton also established Eaton Industrial (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. in Wuxi, Jiangsu, in January 2008 as its production base for commercial vehicle transmissions in China.
However, for Eaton and ZF, the biggest problem that needs to be solved for a sole proprietorship is how to meet the needs of Chinese users adaptively. How to lower the price of products, understand the Chinese market and users, and whether they can provide a strong sales service network are the top priorities for them.
As a world-class giant with superior capital strength and advanced technology, Eaton and ZF seem to be patient and wait for opportunities.
In May this year, it was reported that the joint venture between ZF and Cayad has been basically finalized. Although the proportion of joint ventures between the two parties is currently unknown, it is certain that both parties will invest in a production base in Minjiang to create the "China's first brand of commercial transmissions. "The first-phase project capacity is designed to be 300,000 transmissions.
Earlier, Eaton has formed a strategic alliance with Beiqi Foton as a standard supplier of gearboxes and clutches for Futian Auman CTX. Wang Zhan, general manager of Eatonâ€™s China Group, said: â€œEatonâ€™s heavy-duty transmission business has grown fourfold year-on-year, and is expected to grow four-fold next year. In the next five years, Eaton will grow at a rate of 20% per year.â€
For Fast, although there is no need to worry about the competitive threats of Eaton and ZF in the short term, once they overcome the above deficiencies, they will become Fast's truly strong competitors.

Fast will have a long way to go ZF and Cypriots have successfully entered into a joint venture, domestic automakers gradually adopt their own transmissions, and foreign transmission giants step by step... All this will erode the heavy truck transmissions that are almost monopolized by Fast. market.
However, the blowout situation in China's commercial vehicle market is rather abnormal. Once the market stabilizes or even falls, the competition in the heavy-duty transmission market will be cruel.
According to the analysis, in the field of commercial vehicle transmissions in China, high market share is a prominent feature, but this does not conform to market rules. In the increasingly open market competition in the future, the decline in market share is inevitable. Seeking product line and market extension becomes an inevitable choice.
Industry analysts pointed out that Fast has also faced several major problems: The old market share is already high, it is difficult to improve, and the new market development is weak, resulting in a decline in profits; the technology of Eaton can not be introduced, digested and innovated. The technology is gradually aging; lagging behind competitors in the automatic transmission ATM field may lead to a decline in market share.
Of course, Li Dakai is clearly clear about the situation facing him. He has already designed a clearer blueprint for Fast's future: â€œWe need to extend the entire field of automotive powertrain, but we must not only be high-end and large. I also have to go down and go into the light truck market. The high-end is the automatic transmission and the future hybrid power. We have to extend it longitudinally. At the same time, we also need to develop other fields, synchronizers, power take-offs, etc. Tomorrow's Fast will become the supplier of the entire drive system."
Li Dakai believes that Fast's advantage is not only in products, but also in service. â€œFast has nearly 1,000 special service stations and 30 sales branches throughout the country. The three-pack area is two years or 100,000 kilometers; it is also held every year. More than 300 training sessions, inviting maintenance personnel and drivers to attend.
However, one can imagine the fact that the future Fast will no longer have to sit back and relax.
Li Dakai thinks that the days when Fast and the minions are coming together are finally coming.
In fact, he was prepared for such a mentality several years ago.
On June 26, 2007, ZF Transmission Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. was formally established. This means that ZF heavy-duty transmissions (industry's automotive transmissions with a nominal input torque above 900 Nm are often referred to as heavy-duty automotive transmissions). Landing in China, the industry generally believes that this will challenge Shaanxi Fast's monopoly position in the heavy-duty vehicle transmission market.
"Faster is confident of accepting the challenges of multinational corporations and is determined to meet any competition." This is the rhetoric of Li Dakai, chairman of Shaanxi Fast Group.
Lee Dae-kai did have the same feeling of power. Imagine how ZF (Hangzhou)'s 35,000-unit production capacity could instigate an annual output of more than 200,000 units and occupy 80% of China's heavy-duty truck transmission market.
By 2010, with the spread of a message, Li Dakaiâ€™s opponent will suddenly become stronger due to his cooperation with Fang Yue.
Not long ago, news from the Chongqing Municipal Development and Reform Commission stated that in June this year, the ZFW Commercial Vehicle Division of Germany will sign a joint venture project with Qijiang Gear Transmission Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Chongqing Electromechanical Group.
According to the contents of the negotiations, both parties will invest in a production base in Western Gear City in Chongqing's Lujiang County to create the "China's first brand of commercial vehicle transmissions." The capacity of the first phase of the project is designed to be 300,000 transmissions, and the annual sales revenue is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan.
Careful people may find that the previous tooth decay has been committed to creating the "China's first brand of passenger transmission," and now with the addition of ZF, "China's first brand of commercial vehicle transmission" was also raised high-profile.
Obviously, in addition to consolidating the status of the first brand of passenger car transmission, the Zarzburg Group will also attack the market share of the heavy truck transmissions where Fast has an advantage. "Probation for a fight" may be the future norm between these two independent commercial vehicle transmission companies.

Each overlord Fast (Shaanxi tooth) and dental caries, can be described as one of the commercial vehicle transmission overlord.
In 2009, the "Zhujiang" transmission took up 46.4% of the market for large and medium-sized passenger cars, and the occupancy rate of passenger buses and tourist buses that were more than 10 meters in length exceeded 80%. It has been the number one passenger car industry for many years in a row.
Fast has produced and sold more than 550,000 vehicle transmissions in 2009. It has been ranked first in China's gear industry for eight consecutive years, and its heavy-duty transmission production and sales have ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, especially in domestic heavy-duty trucks. Fast has occupied over 80% of the market.
The formation of commercial vehicle transmissions today also dates back to the 1980s. At that time, China began to introduce Steyr technology. Under the overall plan economy, Shaanxi Gear Factory (the predecessor of Shaanxi Fast Transmission Group) and Chongqing Yujiang Gear Factory have their own division of labor: Shaanxi Gear Co., Ltd. is mainly equipped with products of 260 horsepower or more, and cavities are 260 horsepower. The following products. Their transmission transmission torque is above 1000Nm, which also determines the future market position of Shanzhi and Qiang.
Later, Shaanxi Dental and the United States Eaton Corporation signed a technology transfer agreement, began production of double countershaft transmission. Cushioning is the introduction of German ZF technology to produce heavy-duty vehicle transmissions. Daidai (Datong gear factory) introduced Nissan Diesel technology to produce 5th and 6th gear products. In 1986, Harbin officially changed its name to Harbin Automobile Gear Factory, the first automobile factory, and developed a series of products based on the technology of Hino transmission. The gear transmission of big gear and hob gear is about 800Nm, and the big gear is more suitable for heavy trucks. It can be said that the transmission plants have little conflict of interests with each other and the market is relatively peaceful and orderly.
In the early 90s of last century, Big Gear entered the passenger car market, and developed rapidly. At the end of the 1990s, it occupied 60% of the total domestic passenger car transmission. Later, due to production problems, Big Gear will shift more energy to the truck market. The same production capacity problem also occurred in the dental caries, which directly led to both of them missed the "blowout" of the heavy-duty card market of more than 15 tons from 2001 to 2004. However, although the fangs also missed the heavy truck blowout, the fangs grabbed the opportunity to adjust the direction of the big teeth to force the passenger car market, eventually thriving, seizing the leading position in the passenger car transmission industry.
In the new century, after the addition of the torch to China, Fast gained plenty of development and received technical support from Eaton. After joining Weichai, the development rate was even more rapid. Within a few years, the assets had doubled several times, and it finally achieved its current dominance.
Since then, the commercial vehicle transmission market has entered the era of "double oligarchs" in the field of trucks and dental cars in the field of passenger cars.

Short-term confrontation <
â€œWe will never withdraw from the heavy truck market!â€ After gaining the leading position in the passenger car transmission, General Manager Fang Yue declared at an internal conference in 2003, and set off a new offensive to open up the heavy truck market, with an annual output of 60,000 yuan in the shortest possible time. Taiwan and the passenger and cargo markets aim to achieve a leaping development for the company. In the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", it is even more certain that "the dental caries will have a share of about 30% in the heavy-duty transmission market."
However, it is obvious that dental caries can hardly accomplish this goal. Judging only from the rapid development of the heavy-duty vehicle market in recent years, if we want to reach a 30% share, we must have at least 180,000 units of production, based on the production and sales of more than 600,000 heavy-duty trucks last year, and the production capacity of dental caries is obviously not sufficient. In addition, it mainly meets the demand for passenger car transmissions, and most of the market share of heavy vehicles is still firmly occupied by Fast.
It can be seen that in the export products of China National Heavy Duty Truck and Dongfeng Liuqi, the gear transmission has a relatively high share.
At the same time, although Fast is sitting on a heavy-duty vehicle transmission, it is still bus transmission market. In fact, Li Dakai's idea of â€‹â€‹entering the passenger car transmission market has a long history, but due to the spurt growth in domestic heavy trucks, Fast has focused his efforts on the heavy truck sector. According to Li Dakai's idea, Fast will rely on a series of new transmission products that have been successfully developed over a long period of time to fully meet the market demand for medium-sized passenger cars to over 12m extra-large passenger cars, and further expand the domestic and foreign market matching territories of Fast Transmission.
Facts prove that Fast has achieved good results in the passenger car transmission field. In 2007, Fast provided small-batch support for bus companies such as Ankai, Yutong and Suzhou Jinlong. Since 2008, almost all major passenger car factories have signed cooperation agreements with Fast.
Song Jian, deputy deputy director of the Tsinghua Automotive Engineering Development Research Institute, commented: â€œTechnology, Fast's double countershaft technology can make the transmission smaller and easier to arrange. Fast output is much higher than other competitive companies. With cost advantages, this is very important for bus companies.
The industry analysts believe that with the joint venture between Zhaifang and ZF, the advantages of dental caries will be reflected in the technical aspects in the future competition. ZF's transmission technology is the world leader, and its advanced technology will help caries stay ahead in the medium and large passenger car market.
At present, dental caries in the domestic large and medium passenger car transmission market still has obvious advantages, market share reached 70% to 80%. Fast enters the passenger car market and may not pose a threat to dental caries in the short term, but in the long run, both will sooner or later compete in this area.
View related topics: Fast: Heavy-duty transmission production and sales in the world

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