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Although the performance of the heavy-duty truck market was unusually hot in 2010, many corporate figures and experts are cautious about the market trend in 2011. They believe that the heavy-duty truck market in 2011 is likely to be difficult to reach the level of 2010, and the downturn is a high probability event.
The 60% increase in heavy trucks in China depends on infrastructure construction and it is impossible to sustain growth. The role of the phased influencing factors of high-heavy truck growth in 2010 will weaken, coupled with policy tightening, sales of heavy trucks are expected to decline in 2011, but the rate will not be too large, probably at 10%. China’s heavy truck inventory will reach approximately 4.5 million units in 2010. Sales volume in 2011 will reach the 2010 level, which means that there will be 1 million new vehicles. This is unlikely, and it may become a phased high in 2010.
According to industry data, the medium-heavy trucks achieved sales of 890,000 units in 2009, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year; sales from January to October 2010 reached 1.09 million units, an increase of 50.7% year-on-year. Medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles achieved faster growth on the basis of high growth in 2009. From January to November 2010, China's auto production and sales totaled 16.041 million and 16.3955 million vehicles, an increase of 33.71% and 34.05% year-on-year. The reasons behind the high growth rate of heavy trucks for two consecutive years include economic recovery, elimination of road maintenance fees, and toll-by-weight policies. The superposition of road maintenance fees and the combination of weight-based charging policies have accelerated the scrapping of heavy-duty vehicles. The current doubt is that sales will be scrapped. How long can it be released?
Most business people and experts believe that in addition to the phase-influence factors such as scrapping will weaken, based on the central government’s new policy tone and the current macroeconomic environment, the risk of heavy truck sales decline in 2011 is also increasing. The risks faced by the truck industry in 2011 mainly came from the macro economy. The first was the change in monetary policy. In 2010, the Central Bank announced six times that it would increase the deposit reserve ratio. Second, the increase in fixed asset investment was not sustainable. In 2009, the investment was to GDP. The contribution of growth reached 92.3%, and there is a bottleneck in continuing to drive economic growth through investment. From the perspective of China's heavy truck industry, the sales volume in 2010 will reach about 1 million units. According to incomplete statistics, the production capacity will exceed 1.3 million units, and the industry competition will become more intense. Enterprises will face falling product prices, falling profit margins and cash flow difficulties. Multiple risks.
With regard to the difficulties that the industry may encounter, business people believe that the pace of globalization should be accelerated and the eyes should not be placed on the domestic market alone. In recent years, the pace of globalization of China's heavy truck companies has been slow. In the future, with the smaller growth space in the domestic market, companies should turn their attention to other types of markets and even to a class of markets. A class of markets refers to markets in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan; and a class II market is a market outside of a class of markets. The sales volume of the second type of market accounts for more than 70% of the total volume, and it is increasing substantially.
It is understood that Futian Auman, a joint venture between Foton Motors and Daimler, will set up three overseas manufacturing bases in Brazil, India and Russia to face the global market. In the short term, the company does not have the conditions to enter a class of markets, but after 2015, It is planned to enter a class of market. Although this market is relatively stable, it generates 80% of the industry's total profits. Others suggested that Chinese heavy-duty truck companies should upgrade to high-end and do not stay at the low end to fight prices. According to reports, nearly 85% of China's heavy truck market share is occupied by domestic brands, but product prices are concentrated below 300,000 yuan. Western European, American and other international brands are at the highest end, and expensive ones can be sold for more than 1 million yuan.