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So I suddenly thought that China has not been plagued by high oil prices in recent years. Then, should those reforms that have been formed in the context of high oil prices, such as the domestic energy management system and price reforms, and the promotion of energy-saving and emission reduction policies, should they be changed? The high oil prices brought to China is not only a crisis and a challenge, but it should also be an external driving force and opportunity to promote the reform of the domestic energy industry, the upgrading of industrial structure, and the sustainable development of the economy.
Faced with such a profound decline in international oil prices, no one has yet been able to explain what the ultimate position of this round of oil price reduction will be. Because, once expected to change, it will be maintained for a long period of time and difficult to reverse. The international oil price fell below $115/barrel, and many people believe that the short-term pressure of China's economic adjustment will also be eased. However, the fall in oil prices will not help solve the fundamental problems and conflicts facing the world economy. The adjustment of China's economy is still at the initial stage.
In fact, the most direct response to the drop in oil prices was to strengthen the confidence of the peripheral funds in the U.S. dollar and support the dollar’s ​​exchange rate to rebound. However, this plausible see-saw effect is still only effective in the virtual economy, which does not help China's urgently needed external demand to fully recover. Therefore, it is necessary to treat this round of oil price drop with a neutral attitude. The power of the current bull market for commodity futures comes from international capital. It is a spontaneous hedging behavior after withdrawal of funds from the US market, and it has strong irrational and herding effects. It is also normal for a large correction to occur after an imaginary rise, and the fluctuation of commodity futures itself is also in line with the characteristics of long-term and large-scale. However, as the United States, the world's largest economy, if the economic fundamentals still cannot quickly recover from the obvious characteristics, and even continue to perform poorly, it may further dampen investors’ confidence. At this point, it is not impossible for international oil prices to revert to new highs.
It can be seen from the rise and fall in the prices of bulk commodities in the international market that due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the US economy, capital is bound to seek new profit targets, and the influx of oil into the oil futures market becomes inevitable. However, the excessive concentration of funds in oil and other commodity element markets implied that capital has not been able to find a suitable area for real economy investment on a global scale. This is a signal that economic growth patterns are facing adjustments.
At present, China’s energy reform is still in its infancy. Even if the world economy shows a strong recovery before the end of this year, China should unswervingly follow the established industrial structure adjustment policy, make full use of the opportunities for international economic adjustment, and unswervingly promote energy. The reform of the management system and price formation mechanism and the increase of China's hierarchy in the international industrial division of labor can build up the strength of the next round of high-quality growth in the Chinese economy.
Of course, the international oil price is an indicator with random characteristics. Therefore, we look at the international oil market and we must take a broad perspective to examine the domestic energy reform and even the economic reform process.
Recently, the once speculative speculation in crude oil futures seems to have begun to cool. The international oil price turned down and went all the way down.