The full implementation of diesel upgrades triggered the “shuffle†of the light truck market
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China has become the world's largest motor vehicle production and sales country for many years. Motor vehicle pollution has become an important source of air pollution in China. Among them, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by diesel vehicles nationwide are about 70% and 80% respectively of total vehicle emissions. It has become a major emitter in the local air pollution control.
According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" and the "Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an announcement to revoke the diesel vehicle products applicable to the National III emission standard on December 31, 2014, from 2015. From the 1st of the month, the National III diesel vehicle products will not be sold, which indicates that the diesel standard upgrades that have been repeatedly delayed due to various factors such as oil shortages and “fakes†have been fully rolled out.
According to industry insiders, oil quality is an important factor affecting vehicle emissions. The sulfur content of National IV standard vehicle diesel will be reduced from 350 milligrams per kilogram of the national standard to 50 milligrams per kilogram. The use of national IV diesel can significantly reduce the emission of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter from diesel exhaust. Previously, the diesel vehicles that sold below the national IV standard will take some time to eliminate the digestion. Therefore, the sales trend of the national IV diesel vehicles will become an important manifestation of the smooth transition of diesel upgrades.
Every time the diesel oil standard is adjusted, the market share of diesel commercial vehicles will appear to be “shuffledâ€. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, the sales of trucks in 2014 was 3.18 million units, down 8.9% year-on-year. Among them, light trucks were most affected by the rising cost of national IV emission standards and insufficient production preparation by manufacturers. The sales volume was only 1.66 million units, compared with 2013. The annual number of 1.9 million vehicles was reduced by 240,000, a year-on-year decline of 12.9%.
The analysis of the industry pointed out that due to the dual impact of the downward pressure on the economy and the implementation of the National IV standard, the overall market situation of the trucks was sluggish. Since the technical routes used by the national IV diesel heavy truck manufacturers are roughly the same, and the price increase is not high after the upgrade, the impact is small. The price range of the medium and light trucks is around 100,000 yuan, and the price increase brought by users to the national IV upgrade is relatively high. Sensitive, so the sharp decline in production and sales is also reasonable."
“In the past, it was a two-line production. Now it is adjusted to a single line and occasionally it has to be discontinued.†Zhang Xiaofan, general manager of Dongfeng Automobile Co., one of the “light trucks†in China, said that due to the implementation of the national IV diesel standard, the cost of upgrading truck emissions An increase of about 20,000 yuan has brought the light truck industry into a difficult adjustment period, and both production capacity and sales volume have fallen sharply. Dongfeng's output dropped 20% compared with 2013 last year. "According to the regional market trend of Beijing, Guangzhou and other countries that are the first to implement the diesel IV standard, this adjustment period may last for two to three years."
At the same time, the phenomenon of “National III†and even “National II†counterfeiting “National IV†trucks that have appeared in many places since 2014 is tantamount to adding to the truck manufacturers that are in the industry market reshuffle period. To this end, the China Automobile Association organized eight truck manufacturers, including FAW, Dongfeng and Futian, to jointly issue the “Industry Self-discipline Commitment on the Implementation of National IV Emission Standards for Heavy Duty Diesel Vehiclesâ€. The 14 companies that accounted for about 70% of the light truck market share signed an industry self-discipline commitment letter in late June 2014, pledge not to sell non-standard vehicles.
After the "Diesel IV Implementation" boots landed, in the light card market is generally "unprepared", some manufacturers who upgraded products in advance ushered in "Dawn". The industry's first upgrade of the National IV diesel engine's Jiangling light truck, in this round of downturn, because its national IV model is more comprehensive, compared to the national III diesel car no need to increase the price or only a few thousand dollars, plus a big hit "True Country IV" The market strategy has led to a rise in sales and market share.
Technical product upgrade preparations in place oil urea control country IV "landing"
According to industry sources, China's National IV diesel vehicle upgrade technology route is mainly divided into "high pressure common rail + SCR" and "high pressure common rail + EGR". The two sets of technology upgrades are aimed at reducing the emission of nitrogen oxides from automobile exhaust. The biggest difference is that the former needs to use urea as a catalyst, mainly for vehicles of more than 4 tons; the latter does not require urea, and is mainly used for vehicles of less than 4 tons.
At present, commercial vehicle companies such as Dongfeng, Futian and Jianghuai have completed the research and development of corresponding upgraded models and gradually introduced them to the market. However, due to factors such as “high pressure common rail fuel injection†and other engine core components still need to be imported, the rising cost of diesel vehicle upgrade models is still difficult to digest in the short term.
Many car owners and truck owners said that the current range and extent of urea required for national IV diesel and heavy trucks is limited, making the implementation of the National IV standard inevitably a "protracted war." Wang Zhonghua, the owner of Wuhan freight car, spent more than 300,000 yuan in the first half of last year to purchase a Futian Auman IV heavy truck. After entering the operation, he found that it is difficult to meet the gas station of Canada IV diesel in the vicinity of Wuhan. Luck", "National IV car burning country III oil, the engine nozzle is very easy to block, you have to spend thousands of dollars to change one, this country IV car opened trouble."
According to a survey conducted by the China Automobile Association on 672 gas stations in two municipalities directly under the central government of China, as of April 2014, only 2% of gas stations supply small packages and barrels, and no gas station provides special plus. In the urea injection equipment, the supply rate of barreled urea is only 58% in the large auto parts market; the supply rate of “National IV†vehicle diesel is only 9.7%. The reporter learned that although the current national IV diesel sales situation has been improved, the problem of vehicle urea is still difficult to solve in a short period of time.
A person in charge of a domestic car company said that with the full implementation of the diesel IV standard, PetroChina and Sinopec are also accelerating the replacement of oil products, but the coverage is still relatively limited, especially in the urban-rural junction and remote areas, it will certainly be difficult to guarantee in the short term. Able to supply enough country IV diesel. In addition to the slight increase in diesel prices due to oil upgrades, it is difficult to find suitable channels for the “Using Mode†of vehicle urea.
The person in charge said that it is estimated that a heavy truck load will consume 600 yuan of urea in the back and forth between Beijing and Shanghai. The owner can completely remove the control of the use of urea by the vehicle computer through technical means, without adding urea to the exhaust gas. It can run normally. Before the industry proposed a solution of “free supply of urea for vehicles with oil costsâ€, it was generally opposed. “The upgrade of oil products is the basis, and the rational supply and supervision of urea is the decision-making country. After the implementation of the IV standard, the decisive factor for specific results."
The transition of the National IV upgrade needs to ensure that the three unanimous Zhang Xiaofan and other industry insiders pointed out that in conjunction with the gains and losses of the National 2 to National III standard upgrade, and the current development situation of China's truck business as a whole, the diesel country IV standard upgrade is smoothly transitioned and strictly enforced. Agree on three aspects of production, sales, support, and law enforcement:
Production and sales links. All local auto companies have signed industry self-discipline commitments, and mainstream auto companies are currently suspending production in the domestic market. There is no problem in the national IV requirements. Previously, the inventory of dealers in various places could be digested in time, and in the field of low-speed trucks and agricultural diesel vehicles in the field of light trucks, there are still large market demands for low-speed trucks of national III or even lower standards. Can these manufacturers It also realizes the full-line country IV, and there are still many doubts. On the basis of clearing the corresponding upgrade scope standards and timetables, the relevant departments are required to supervise the consistency of the production and sales of diesel engine manufacturers in the country IV upgrade.
Supporting links. In addition to the two "card neck" links of diesel oil and vehicle urea need to be implemented as soon as possible, in the national IV diesel upgrade, due to the quality damage caused by the oil problem, the quality inspection department should classify the clear and unified responsibility; After the official implementation of the State IV, whether the state and localities need to introduce guidance subsidy policies, reduce the cost of car owners to increase the enthusiasm, etc., also need relevant functional departments and industries to start research preparation as soon as possible to ensure the "consistency" and coherence of relevant supporting measures. Sex.
Law enforcement. Relevant functional departments involved in the upgrade of China IV diesel, such as industrial letter, quality inspection, environmental protection, 3C certification, etc., should be consistent in the introduction of corresponding rules and regulations, cope with the challenges in the process of upgrading the national IV diesel; treat enterprises and users who destroy the order of the industry How to clarify unified law enforcement standards and prevent selective law enforcement and selective subsidies under various "local protectionism".