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According to the current capacity expansion plan, we expect mainland China to account for 23 global expected total capacity in 2014 (20 in 2013), and Taiwan and South Korean chip makers will account for 36 and 15 respectively (mainly unchanged from 2013), Japanese chip production Business is expected to account for 16 (18 in 2013). General lighting demand will continue to maintain strong growth In the long run, LED usage in the general lighting market will continue to rise, so LED demand will remain strong for a long time. It is expected that the demand for high-brightness LED will increase by 32% in 2014 and 19.% in 2015. The most strong growth will be general lighting, and we expect demand area in this area to increase by 71%. Therefore, we expect 2014 In the year, global general-purpose lighting LEDs will account for 43% of total demand, higher than 2013's 33. It is expected that the demand for TV/laptop/display backlight module (BLU) will drop by 2/16/8 in 2014. However, we expect tablet backlighting Module demand will increase by 32% year-on-year. Overall, we expect the total demand area of ​​backlight modules to increase by 11. According to many major lighting companies (including NVC, Op, Fossil, Mulinsen, Zhejiang Sunshine, AcuityBrands, Philips, OSRAM) And Zumtobel) revealed that LED lighting products accounted for about 30% of total lighting revenue in the fourth quarter of 2013. Revenue from LED-related sales also increased between 40 and 100. UBS analyst Fredric Stahl said that Philips LED lighting revenue increased by 48% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Osram said that LED lighting sales increased by 28 in the fourth quarter of 2013, accounting for 33% of total revenue, up from 26. OSRAM recently announced the splitting of its lighting business into two divisions, one focusing on traditional lighting and the other focusing on LED lighting. Osram said at the analyst day that the shipment of LEDClassic products in the first quarter of 2014 increased by 160. The general manager of Mulinsen's domestic marketing, Lin Jiliang, told reporters that Mulinsen had completed sales in the whole year of last year. Analyst Winnie Clark said that AcuityBrands reported that LED sales in the fourth quarter of 2013 have more than doubled year-on-year. UBS analyst Stephen Chin said that during the same period, Cree's LED lighting revenue increased by 42%, and LED bulb terminal sales turned over quarter-on-quarter. Several factors driving the development of the LED general lighting market We believe that the demand for LED lighting will continue to grow strongly in 2014. The main driving factors are: consumer energy conservation, environmental awareness, and LED favor. Today, don't say that urban consumers, even rural consumers, mostly know the benefits of LEDs and start using LEDs to varying degrees. Therefore, the popularity of LEDs has been greatly improved. The decline in the price of LED products has made consumers' enthusiasm for buying fast, and they are no longer hesitant because of the price. In the last two years, LED light source products have dropped by 300, which has quickly narrowed the distance from the market. The relevant government departments have strongly supported, and financial subsidies and other policy support have accelerated market incubation. The vigorous promotion of the media has made LED products more and more popular. Experts, associations, and the media have promoted and promoted LEDs in large numbers to make them known to women and children. In addition to residential lighting needs, the analysis believes that outdoor lighting and commercial lighting will continue to grow steadily, driven by government projects and incentives. The continued decline in bulb prices revealed that LED bulb prices continued to fall in 2014, mainly due to cost reductions and lighting companies' promotional plans. Lighting companies and retail channels will also expand their market share through lower-cost LED bulbs with new technologies. For example, after Cree passed the ENERGY STAR certification, Philips also launched ENERGY STAR-certified products that enable consumers to purchase Philips LED bulbs for subsidies. We expect LED bulb demand to grow steadily after the retail price of LED bulbs equivalent to 60 watts (700-900 lumens) of ordinary bulbs has fallen below $10. But bulbs will not become mainstream products in urban home improvement. Product quality continues to improve and design is improved. It has been observed from the show that product quality continues to improve and the number of omnidirectional bulbs is increasing. Our survey also shows that the cost of LED light sources has dropped to around 40-45 total operating costs. Thermally divergent materials have also changed. As LED energy efficiency increases, the industry uses more plastic materials to reduce heat generation. It is expected that the mainstream luminance of LED chips in 2014 will be around 120-140 lumens/watt. We still expect plastic leaded chip carrier (PLCC) type packaging (ie 5630) to become the mainstream product for residential light bulb replacement. However, we also expect more and more chip-on-board (COB) in the design of high-power LED bulbs (such as streetlights and downlights). Feedback on the use of ceramic substrates is positive and negative, as its cost is still higher than traditional lead frame packaging (including the recent popular epoxy molding compound (EMC). Our survey shows that lead frame packaging (including EMC) can still be Dominating the low- and medium-power LED chip market (less than 1 watt), and ceramic substrates will still be favored in the high-power market (more than 3 watts). In the next few years, between 1 watt and 3 watts of power range LED chip substrate materials are expected More intense competition. There is an increasing number of remarks about flip chip (FC) and package-free chips (PFC) that are expected to evolve into next-generation chip designs. The advantage of flip-chip or package-free chips is that structural improvements can help increase chip The angle of illumination. In addition, due to the elimination of the use of the lead frame during the packaging process, the light emitted by the chip is not blocked, which can improve the efficacy of the brightness. Investigations by several chip manufacturers indicate that they will develop flip-chip or layout Packaging chip. Epistar's recent investment in Edison Optoelectronics may be one of the high-power LED chip packaging capabilities of the wafer photoelectric layout. Strategic move. Therefore, we believe that once LED companies (either chip makers or packaging manufacturers) decide to increase capital expenditure on new equipment, the growth of flip-chip and package-free chips will be stronger. This is expected to further reduce the cost of LED chips. From the simple lighting products to the integrated lighting system to the Taipei Lighting Show, the focus has shifted to several important topics, such as home smart lighting applications. Several companies (like Delta Electronics and Everlight Electronics) have demonstrated the concept of intelligent lighting. For example, the lighting industry has introduced a user interface called Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (DALI) that incorporates environmental sensors and some data transfer technologies (such as Power Line Communication (PLC) and ZigBee) to determine the room. Whether there is the brightness of the ambient light and whether it should be turned on and the brightness level that needs to be turned on. There are several advantages to using LEDs in intelligent lighting systems. First, LED is one of the most energy-efficient lighting products, which is compatible with intelligent lighting systems. The main purpose. Secondly, by producing dimmable, LED bulbs with adjustable color and temperature are an easier way to meet different uses in a room or space. Finally, in some areas (such as the medical industry that requires a certain color and light length) and the need to stimulate growth, development and LEDs are better than traditional lighting technology. Intelligent lighting systems use LEDs. We believe this will be another driving force for LEDs to achieve long-term growth in general lighting beyond the current demand for replacement of existing bulbs. MOCVD orders are expected to start recovering in 2014. Our survey of MOCVD vendors such as VeecoInstruments and Aixtron shows that orders growth is still slow in the first quarter of 2014, as LED chip makers may still be evaluating annual demand to determine expansion plans. Analyst Stephen Chin (covering Veeco) said that Veeco's orders are expected to recover strongly from the second quarter of 2014. According to announcements from major global chip manufacturers, they expect to purchase 350-400 MOCVD in 2014. We estimate that mainland China chip makers will account for 65 MOCVD purchases announced in 2014, and Taiwan LED chip makers will account for 16. Capacity expansion plan, we expect mainland China to account for 23 global expected total capacity in 2014 (20 in 2013), Taiwan and South Korea chip makers will account for 36 and 15 respectively (mainly unchanged from 2013), Japanese chip makers can Looking at 16 (2013 is 18). New capacity volume may take longer. One point to emphasize is that the actual MOCVD equipment may actually take output 2-3 quarters later than the time the order is placed (assuming equipment delivery takes 3-4 months, batching Production preparation takes 2-3 months). In addition, our survey of some key peripheral manufacturers shows that cutting and sorting machines may take longer to deliver. Therefore, we believe that our current forecast for a capacity increase of 18 in 2014 may have downside risks. The LED industry faces multiple risks, including fluctuations in terminal demand (especially fluctuations in the general market penetration rate). LED chip production expansion discipline may lead to potential oversupply risks and the resulting average selling price and profit margin pressure. .