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First, the macroeconomic and financial situation is improving. Affected by the national macroeconomic regulation and control policies, domestic stocks and commodity markets have risen in an all-round manner, which has particularly promoted the industrial product market to fluctuate upwards, while many domestic regions have been affected by various natural disasters, which have also pushed up prices of agricultural product markets. As the production and sales of natural rubber products have the characteristics of agricultural products and industrial products, the price of natural rubber has been strengthened.
The second is the seasonal seasonal pattern of natural rubber production. From June to August, there are frequent occurrences of various natural disasters such as typhoon, rainstorm, and flood. This year is no exception. Even the characteristics are even more obvious. As a result, the price risk of the natural rubber market has been extended to extend, which has also contributed to the price movement in the futures market.
The third is the movement of natural rubber in Thailand. The Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Thailand stated on July 22 that in 2011, the country will expand the rubber plantation area by 1280 square kilometers, and at the same time plan to increase rubber export tariffs, hoping that the export tax rate can be synchronized with the rise in rubber prices. The plan was submitted to the cabinet during the week and it is expected that the new rubber export tariff rate will be implemented from October. Although the natural planting area of ​​Thai natural rubber will expand in the future, the impact on supply will be many years later (plastic trees planted in 2011 will not be able to produce plastic until 2017), and its natural rubber export tariff increase will be implemented in October, so integrated Thailand After expanding the species and adjusting the tax factors, it will still have a relatively large effect on the market.
The fourth period is now upside down. Despite the fact that the seasonal value cuts the rubber season throughout the year, the price of plastics has shown a trend of falling inwards and rising to high levels, with periods falling to high levels. The spot price of SCRWF latex in current production areas has reached 23,700 to 23,800 yuan. Even if the relationship between sales and premiums between production and sales regions is not considered, it will significantly exceed the Hujiao's near-and-long-term contract futures prices, which will prompt the outflow of Hujiao's inventory. Restrict Hujiao's callback space and expand its upside. A comparison of the rubber prices in the international market production and sales area shows that the spot price of the current No. 3 smoke tablet adhesive is 310 cents/kg, while Tokyo Plastics has recently delisted from the recent July contract with a high of 400 yen per kilogram. The contract period price is 260 to 270 yen/kg, which is equivalent to 295 to 307 cents/kg. It can be seen from the comparison that the price of the Tokyo plastic forward contract price is still at a premium to the spot rubber price in the production area, so the forward contract still has a strong upward momentum.
However, negative factors also exist. In the first six months of the domestic auto market, there have been a backlog of 1,269,900 large-scale inventories, and the auto industry is facing an unfavorable situation of increasing production without increasing income and forcing price reductions. At the same time, there are as many as 40 new tire projects in domestic tire companies, with a total of 600,000 steel tires, and as many as tens of millions of tires, and 3 million fewer tires for passengers, and as many as 15 million tires. The tire production capacity is also serious. More than demand. As a result, the production capacity of the automotive and tire industries in the downstream of natural rubber will gradually become excessive, which will have a heavy suppressing effect on the natural rubber market.
In summary, the natural rubber market is expected to perform anti-seasonal price increases due to the overall macroeconomic and financial situation, and the overall supply-demand relationship of the natural rubber market. The market outlook may continue to rise sharply with a slight correction.
In recent days, with the strong rebound of Tokyo Rubber, the Hujiao market continued to rise sharply and broke through. On July 30, the Hujiao Index hit an intraday high of 23,769 yuan in three months since April 27, and the open interest exceeded 400,000 lots, significantly expanding to more than 415,000 hands, setting a record for the long-term trading history of this variety. Maximum position record. The reasons for the rise in natural rubber prices are as follows: