"Overheating" is the "surplus" wind power industry encountered many stumbling blocks

Frequent accidents, difficulties in grid connection, excess production capacity... Many problems plague the development of the wind power industry.

Wind power installed capacity has increased year by year, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. Recently, Li Yingfa, vice president and researcher of Sichuan New Energy Industry Promotion Association, told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that depending on policy-driven, wind power has developed rapidly in recent years. From the perspective of supply of wind power products, it has emerged Excess phenomenon.

ChinaVenture Investment Group's analysis believes that after five years of rapid development, the wind power industry has begun to return to rationality, shifting from speed/scale-oriented development to quality/efficiency-oriented, which is an inevitable trend in the wind power industry.

According to statistics of the China Wind Energy Association, China Wind Power installed a total of 12,904 wind turbines in 2010, with an installed capacity of 18,928 MW, an increase of 37.1% year-on-year; 34,485 wind turbines were installed, with an installed capacity of 44,733 MW, an increase of 73.3% year-on-year. Although China's wind power capacity is still maintained at a very high level, the growth rate has obviously slowed down compared to the previous five consecutive years of total installed capacity growth.

Li Ling, an analyst at China Investment Group, believes that wind power generation plays a prominent role in reducing environmental pollution, adjusting energy structure, and resolving electricity consumption in remote areas where domestic energy supply and demand contradictions are getting more serious and power demand is rising. Therefore, in the long run, the prospects of the wind power industry are still worth looking forward to. In terms of industrial chain, due to problems such as overcapacity, wind power machine manufacturing and wind farm operation lack investment space, while high-tech components, especially wind power converters, have certain investment opportunities.

ChinaVenture Investment Group's analysis believes that looking at the entire wind power industry chain, the contradiction between overcapacity in wind turbine manufacturing industry is outstanding. According to statistics, currently there are more than 80 complete machine manufacturing enterprises in China, among which the top three are Sinovel Wind Power [21.65-1.99% shares in Bar Research Report], Goldwind Technology [9.06-2.37% shares in Bar Research Report] and Dongfang Electric [ 24.36-0.61% share bar reported that the cumulative market share of China's wind power market has reached nearly 60%, the cumulative market share of the top 10 companies reached 85%, while more than 60 companies, accounting for only 3.9% of the market share. Therefore, wind power machine manufacturers face greater pressure and lack of investment space.

Under this circumstance, the relevant state departments have issued a series of wind power related policies this year. The policy intention of controlling the development pace of the wind power industry and ensuring the sustainable development of the industry is becoming increasingly apparent. Among them, the "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment" pointed out that the contradiction between overcapacity in the wind power industry is outstanding. “China Wind Power [0.34-1.45%] Development Roadmap 2050” It is expected that after 2020, the current domestic wind power subsidy policy will be phased out and withdrawn. The Interim Measures for the Administration of Wind Power Development and Construction clearly revoked local powers for examination and approval of wind power projects, further slowing down the overheated development of local wind power.

Li Ling said that with the termination of subsidies, changes in government support policies, and the exposure of many issues in the wind power industry, the wind power industry's growth space is shrinking, and it has encountered an unprecedented bottleneck in development. The excessive competition in the market and the improvement of the industry's technical threshold will inevitably bring about the integration of the entire industry. At the end of July this year, Datang Group’s acquisition of 70% of Shandong Huachuang Wind Energy was a signal. Through a series of market integration, some small-scale companies that rely heavily on subsidies will face exit risks. This is both a challenge and a new opportunity for the wind power industry. In the long term, it will help improve product quality and promote industry health. Orderly development.

Frequent accidents The China Venture Group's statistics show that after five years of “blowout” development in China’s wind power industry, potential problems began to emerge in the “12th Five-Year” start year.

On February 24, the 598 wind power units of the Jiuquan Jiuquan wind power station in the Northwest Power Grid were off-grid. On April 17th, 702 units of 15 wind farms in Guazhou, Gansu Province were removed from the network. On the same day, in Zhangjiakou, Hebei, Guohua [0.10 9.47%] Jiaxin wind farm 644 typhoon wind turbine off the net. On April 25, 8 days later, Jiuquan Wind Power Base again suffered an accident and thousands of fans were removed from the network.

According to statistics, since 2011, there have been 35 accidents involving wind turbine disconnection in the scope of operations of the State Grid Corporation of China, including 6 large-scale net-off accidents and 3,848 net-off wind turbines.

Li Ling believes that the frequent occurrence of wind turbine off-grid accidents reflects that most wind turbines do not have low-voltage ride-through capability, there is a deficiency in construction supervision during the construction of wind farms, large-scale wind farm access affects the overall safety of the power grid, and wind farm operation and management are weak. problem. At present, China's smart grid construction is still in its infancy, which imposes certain restrictions on the development of the wind power industry. The situation in which wind farms that have access to the grid are restricted from generating electricity has occurred from time to time. Some wind farms have lost as much as 30% of their electricity. Therefore, with the rapid increase in the installed capacity of wind power in China, wind power equipment quality issues and grid connection issues need to be resolved.

A research report of Orient Securities believes that there are two major reasons for the lower-than-expected wind power installation plan: On the one hand, wind power peak adjustment capability is poor. Since the wind speed is higher than during the day at night, the power generation during the night is also higher than during the day. There is no ability to “climb and fill valleys”; on the other hand, stability is questioned. Various types of accidents frequently occur during the operation of wind power, so wind power installations will also be greatly restricted if security is not guaranteed.

"When the wind is big, the grid can't handle it. When the wind is small, the grid is not getting enough." Li Yingfa said that he thinks that the grid should realize the complementarity between wind power and thermal power.

“The Electricity Regulatory Commission initiated a rectification storm.” The above-mentioned Orient Securities research report stated that on August 1st, the SERC issued the “Circular on Launching a National Wind Power Safety Inspection” and decided to organize a wind power safety inspection in August this year. The inspection contents mainly include four aspects, namely the safety management of wind farms, the situation of wind power equipment, the operation of wind farms, and the access system of wind farms. Among them, the most important thing in the wind power equipment situation is to check the unit's low-voltage ride-through capability detection and modification. The inspection will report the report to the SERC by September 10, and will criticize the company in question afterwards.

ChinaVenture Investment Group expects that after the report is submitted, it will further carry out a centralized rectification of the low-voltage ride-through problem by rectifying the unit that does not have low-voltage ride-through capability, thus effectively preventing the occurrence of fan-off accidents.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the vicious competition in the industry, equipment quality, approval of downstream projects, and grid-connected and many other factors, the domestic wind power equipment manufacturing industry has shown a weak trend.

This year's three quarterly reports of listed companies in the wind power industry chain did not show "amazing" results as in the past few years, and even showed a noticeable decline in performance, again indicating that the rapid growth momentum of China's wind power industry has slowed down in recent years.

According to statistics from ChinaVenture Investment Group, the leading wind power equipment manufacturing company Huarui Wind Power achieved a net profit of 901 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 48.51%. Goldwind Science and Technology and Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd. [8.67-0.23% share bar research report] achieved a net profit of RMB 615 million and RMB 126 million respectively in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 59.85% and 18.32% respectively. Although Dongfang Electric's net profit in the first three quarters of this year increased by 33.48% year-on-year, its three quarterly report showed that due to the year-on-year decrease in the sales price of wind power products, the gross profit margin of new energy in the first three quarters was 18.82%, compared with 20.88% in the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.06. Percentage points decreased by 3.01 percentage points over the entire year of 2010.

At the same time, due to the conduction effect between upstream and downstream of the entire wind power industry, the listed companies of upstream components have performed poorly in the first three quarters of this year. In terms of blades, Sinoma Technology, one of the leading companies, achieved a net profit of RMB 92.52 million in the first three quarters, a decrease of 35.59% year-on-year. In respect of towers, the rapid growth of Tianshun Wind Power in recent years [16.02-0.87% shares in its research report], the first three quarters of net profit increased by 21.37% year-on-year, while another Taisheng Wind Energy [9.19-0.33% Quarterly net profit of 42.4519 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.69%. Bearings, the leading company in the domestic wind power bearing Tianma shares [8.09-0.37% shares bar research report], the first three quarters of net profit of 376 million yuan, a decrease of 22.32%.