Pass a small-displacement subsidy threshold to increase auto sales or negative growth

The reporter learned from the authority of the relevant ministries and authorities that the three ministries’ energy-saving vehicle promotion policies will be revised, and the fuel consumption threshold for a small-displacement vehicle model with a subsidy of 3,000 yuan will be greatly increased. According to a number of industry sources, more than half of the 427 models enjoying subsidy have been affected, and sales of small-displacement models of domestic automakers' own brands will decline sharply; this policy, if implemented during the year, may even lead to negative sales growth in the auto market throughout the year.

Annual sales or negative growth Many people in the industry have told reporters that the development environment of the auto market is unlikely to change significantly in the short term, and the auto market will no longer be able to withstand the introduction of new bad policies during the year. Since the beginning of this year, the deep correction of production and sales volume in the auto market has not yet been reversed: In April and May of this year, China's auto production and sales have seen negative growth year-on-year for the first time since the global financial crisis; China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has increased its year-on-year growth rate by 10% to 15%. , "waist" to about 5%.

Tian Yongqiu, chief executive of the China Watch Industry (CBU), an industry watchdog, said that even after a conservative estimate of the introduction of new cars for small-displacement vehicles, "more than half of the subsidized cars are affected." Yao Jie, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that in the first half of the year-on-year increase of less than 5% in the production and sales of automobiles, the small-displacement vehicles that benefited from subsidies played an important supporting role in this weak growth. If it is to tighten its subsidy threshold, it does not rule out negative sales growth in the auto market throughout the year."

The authoritative sources of energy-saving and emission-reducing vehicles revealed that the subsidy standard for 1.6-liter displacement and the following passenger cars (hereinafter referred to as “small-displacement” or “energy-saving vehicles”) will increase, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers will be within the current 6.9 liters. The gradual transition to 6.3 liters or less, eventually reaching less than 5.9 liters, "it takes two years to ensure that the vehicles meet a certain percentage of subsidy conditions." The person said that the new standard is currently in the process of approval, and it has not been clearly announced.

Xu Changming, director of the Resource Development Department of the State Information Center, believes that if the policy is implemented during the year, privately owned brands such as Chery, Geely, BYD (30.64, 1.53, 5.26%) that rely on a 3,000 yuan subsidy for promotion will suffer a general loss; Willing to raise prices with it will also lose large markets, leading to a serious decline in sales of independent brands. However, in the face of the "pity" of industry associations and vehicle companies, the above-mentioned ministries stressed that energy-saving and people-friendly projects do not encourage consumption, but rather promote structural adjustment.

The above-mentioned ministry officials explained that more than a year ago, when the “100 km fuel consumption limit was limited to 6.9 liters,” the car companies were extremely nervous. They had been saying in our ears that they would “death their own brands” and could now meet the subsidy The number of models has accounted for more than 60% of the total vehicle models, and the total monthly output has reached 300,000 vehicles. The result will be achieved one and a half years ahead of schedule. "This is a very effective strategy for reducing energy consumption and emissions."

The person admits that at present, the subsidy amount of RMB 3,000 per vehicle is at least 100,000 yuan more than the entire vehicle price, and “the support is not strong”. Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said recently that the subsidy standard for energy-saving cars is expected to increase by another 10 percentage points. However, the source stated that the four ministries are not currently planning to raise the current subsidy quota. "It is impossible to allow 'the elimination of backward production capacity' to evolve into a 'GSP' policy."

Yao Jie believes that "Energy-saving products benefit the people" project has a very positive role in promoting product upgrading. “Improve the subsidy threshold is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it helps car companies increase their engine emission technologies and achieve lightweight and intelligent. On the other hand, they may bring more independent brands than foreign brands and joint venture brands. Pressure." Yao Jie said.

The car companies should be given time to breathe. However, several industry associations and observers suggested that the new policy to increase the subsidy threshold should be announced at the end of the year and will be implemented again next year. Xu Changming stated: "With the fall in the general price level next year, macroeconomic policies will begin to loosen the demand for the auto market. At that time, auto companies will have more energy-saving and emission reduction capabilities than today."

Yao Jie said that the current new vehicle fuel consumption has reached the second phase fuel consumption limit, which is within 8.1 liters of 100 kilometers of average fuel consumption, compared to the first phase of the fuel consumption limit within 9.1 liters, has made great progress. However, Tian Yongqiu said: "In the promotion catalogue of the three ministries and commissions, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers of energy-saving vehicles is self-reported by enterprises, and most of them have not been verified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, but basically the reports can be approved."

Tian Yongqiu pointed out that because the energy consumption data of self-owned brands is more watery, once the standards are raised, joint venture brands will benefit even more.

However, Tian Yongqiu speculates that it is not ruled out that the relevant ministries should give the auto companies an early warning to “discharge the wind” and ensure that auto companies at least half a year’s time will step up their technical research and development, reserve key components and technologies, and upgrade their products through small-scale refueling or reducing fuel consumption. The technical parameters can no longer be modified to reduce fuel consumption at the cost of reduced fuel consumption.