The “3.11” earthquake in Japan will have a major impact on the import of petrochemical products from China and will further trigger the rise in prices of downstream ethylene products in the Asia Pacific region. The impact may last at least 2 to 3 months, but it will have little impact on exports. . On March 18, Zhu P, deputy director of the Information and Marketing Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, told reporters.

According to current analysis, the two major impacts of the earthquake in Japan cannot be ignored: First, the demand for crude oil in Japan is reduced, the supply of petrochemical products is reduced accordingly, and the contribution to the entire Asia-Pacific region is reduced; second, the high-end needs for China. The supply of high value-added petrochemical products and China’s large dependence on Japan’s large-scale raw materials, etc., has led to a decrease in the prices of Asia-Pacific petrochemical products.

From the perspective of the import and export of the petroleum and chemical industries, Japan is China’s third largest trading partner. In recent years, China’s trade with Japan has maintained a large deficit. This pattern continues to this day. In 2010, the total import and export of China's petrochemical products to Japan reached US$35.62 billion, of which US$26.08 billion was imported from Japan, which ranked third; China’s export value to Japan was US$9.54 billion, ranking second. China not only imports a large amount of bulk products such as ethylene glycol, PTA (pure terephthalic acid), polyethylene, and polypropylene from Japan, but also imports a large amount of high-end products such as engineering plastics and modified resins. The exports to Japan are mainly concentrated in some primary chemical products.

Zhu P said: "Because the production and sales links of Japanese companies are interlocked and stress-oriented, the inventory of companies is generally not high. Therefore, the shutdown of refineries after the earthquake made us make preliminary judgments on the future supply of products: Due to the reduction in ethylene supply, the production and supply of many bulk chemical products that use ethylene as a raw material in Japan will be affected and will further affect the downstream industries."

Piao pointed out that there are many factors affecting the trend of the world petrochemical market after the earthquake in Japan, and the recent period is an extraordinary period. Judging from the latest information, the petrochemical facilities in Japan’s current earthquake region are basically intact, but due to nuclear leakage, electricity supply is not stable. Considering that after the earthquake, Japanese companies must first ensure the stable supply of electricity, and secondly reassess the plant and equipment. Therefore, at least within two to three months, the petrochemical market will have some uncertain supply and demand.

It is also known that the transportation of petrochemical products has special requirements. The earthquake and tsunami will also have some impact on Japan's port facilities. Therefore, the import and export of petrochemical products will be subject to certain restrictions.

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