Subsidy withdrawal 40%? New Energy Subsidy Policy Brewing Adjustment in 2018

As 2017 nears its end, how the new energy automobile policy will change next year will become a hot issue for auto industry professionals. Recently, rumors that the subsidy for new energy vehicles drastically reduced by 40% in 2018 have been widely circulated in the industry, even triggering a collective decline in the share price of the new energy sector in the capital market.

Looking at the current situation of all parties, the new energy subsidies will continue to degrade next year, which is already an iron nail. However, how to adjust the specific subsidies is still under discussion. It may not be a one-size-fits-all approach. The final subsidy program is likely to be related to new energy vehicles and batteries. The performance of the hook, sub-file down.

Retreat 40%?

Recently, some media broke the news that on November 15, the Ministry of Finance convened four ministries, association experts, and representatives from major companies to discuss small-scale new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018.

According to the discussion paper of this small-scale meeting, the subsidy threshold for new energy passenger vehicles will be further improved in 2018.

From 100 kilometers in 2017 to 150 kilometers, the subsidy standard will also be adjusted from the third block in 2017 to the fifth line (divided by driving range).

The energy density of new energy passenger car battery packs has also been adjusted. The policy in 2017 is that the mass energy density of power battery systems for pure electric passenger cars should not be lower than 90 Wh/kg, and should be subsidized 1.1 times higher than 120 Wh/kg. One of the adjustments is to increase the battery energy density from 90Wh/Kg to 95Wh/Kg. The second option is to re-adjust the subsidy coefficient: <90-100Wh/Kg according to 0.9 coefficient subsidy, 100-135/140Wh/Kg subsidized by 1 time coefficient;> 135/140Wh/Kg subsidy by 1.1 times coefficient.

The hundred-kilowatt power consumption coefficient is also divided into three blocks. The actual 100-kilometer energy consumption is better than the factorial subsidy of the threshold energy consumption of less than 10% in 2017 by the factor of 0.9, and the 10-20% subsidy by 1 time coefficient, and the 20%. Subsidy by 1.1 times.

Plug-in hybrid passenger car (R (cruising range) ≥50Km in pure electric state) The subsidy amount is reduced from 24,000 yuan to 22,000 yuan.

The adjustment of subsidies for new energy buses is even greater: the subsidy for electric power was reduced from 1,800 yuan to 1,100 yuan/degree, the national subsidy limit for bicycles was adjusted to no more than 180,000 yuan, and the ceiling for subsidy for country subsidies was adjusted to 270,000 yuan. The policy for 2017 is that the bicycle country will make up the lineup at 230,000 yuan.

The subsidy for new energy special vehicles was also lowered. The subsidy for electric power was reduced to 900 yuan/degree, and the maximum ceiling was lowered to 100,000, and in 2017 it was 150,000 yuan.

In addition, in order to combat fraudulent subsidies and speculation, the new energy subsidy policy in 2017 requires the operating mileage of operating vehicles to reach 30,000 kilometers before they can apply for subsidies, and the 30,000-kilometer policy makes new energy companies feel "stressed."

The above-mentioned small-scale discussion meeting was brewed and adjusted as follows: The leased vehicle mileage requirement is 15,000 kilometers. The commuter bus mileage requirement was adjusted to 10,000 kilometers. If the technical index cannot reach the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy promotion catalogue, the subsidy can be applied according to the proportion of about 20%-30%.

Judging from this discussion paper, the subsidy quota for new energy passenger vehicles has not been adjusted, mainly based on the original basis of further subdivision, to strengthen the subsidies for advanced technologies and products, new energy buses and special vehicles have a significant amount of subsidies With the downward adjustment, the subsidies for new energy buses will be reduced by nearly 40%.

From the recent situation, the adjustment program for new energy subsidies in 2018 has long been brewing. On October 22, some media broke the news that the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2018 will be 20% in advance, and the documents have been submitted for approval.

On November 10, Dong Yang, executive vice chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also wrote that due to the speed of development of new energy vehicles that exceeds the expectations of the competent authorities, the amount of subsidies will exceed the budget, so the competent authorities have the idea to increase the proportion of slopes. . In his article, he suggested: “I hope the relevant departments will implement the retreat of the subsidy quota based on past commitments! The company’s product planning is based on market conditions, including the technical level required by the market, the amount of subsidies, possible costs and selling prices. The amount of subsidy will not be carried out according to plan and will disrupt the rhythm of the business and affect the sales of products."

Experts say don’t worry too much

According to the subsidy policies issued by the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of 2016, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% on a 2016 basis in 2017-2018, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will decline on the basis of 2016. 40%.

According to the above-mentioned 2018 subsidy program, it is equivalent to starting the 2019-2020 year's decline in advance to 2018, and in the field of new energy buses, the rate of decline is much higher than the 20% annual rate of decline.

Therefore, the rumor of 40 percent of new energy subsidies in 2018 caused widespread concern among the auto industry, and even led to the collective diving of listed companies' new energy-related companies. Leading companies such as Yutong Bus and BYD have not been spared.

However, many people in the industry believe that the possibility of a new energy subsidy for a one-size-fits-all price reduction is not too great.

A person in charge of a new energy company, who declined to be named, said that the adjustment of subsidies in 2018 is still under discussion. The 40% downgrade is just an rumor. Ultimately, the subsidy program is likely to be linked to the performance of vehicles and batteries, and the subsidy will be adjusted downwards. .

Guojin Securities also issued a document saying that the market rumored subsidy retreat version may be the worst case, and the actual situation may not be the same as the rumored version. There are two reasons: First, the subsidy is significantly reduced by 40%, not necessarily across the board, and may be related to the performance of the vehicle, and the sub-standards are lowered. Secondly, the energy density has risen dramatically by 140Wh/kg. Market fears may be excessive. We have judged that the policy has combined the upgrade of upstream battery manufacturers.

According to the analysis of China Gold Securities, even if the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018 degrades, the negative impact on the industry will be much lower than that in 2017. The leading players are expected to be stronger and stronger.

First, even if the subsidy amount is reduced by 40%, it will be reduced from a maximum of 450,000 to 270,000. Compared with the reduction of 150,000 from 1 million in 2017, the impact will be relatively modest. Second, after the subsidy retreat in 2017, the market spent a long time to coordinate upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is expected that this time, the coordination efficiency will be much higher.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, believes that it is possible that the subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced in different degrees. However, he proposed to reduce the overall amount of subsidies by raising technical standards so that good products and companies can be encouraged rather than across the board.

According to news from the bus industry, there are mainstream bus companies that have started to plan ahead for more than 40% ahead of schedule in accordance with subsidies for next year.