"Twelfth Five-Year Plan": The domestic auto market staged a strong take-all?

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, what are the development goals of the domestic automobile market and how many vehicles can be produced each year in the end? How do each manufacturer plan? In late 2010, these problems gradually surfaced.

At the recent "12th Five-Year Plan" conference held by auto companies, Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, introduced that all major car companies have introduced future production and marketing plans. In a comprehensive perspective, China's auto production capacity by 2015 It will reach 23 million to 31 million vehicles and will maintain a high growth rate within a few years.

In fact, this year, China’s auto sales will reach 18 million vehicles, which exceeds the highest level in the United States. Examining the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” at this historical moment, in addition to “quantity”, it is also necessary to find the direction of development in “quality”.

Strong at the end?

For 2010 - the final year of the "Eleventh Five-Year" sales, the industry is generally expected to be around 18 million. However, from the end of the year to the end of the year, the monthly growth of the auto industry's sales volume has gradually declined. The year-on-year growth has been reduced from the previous 31% to 27%, of which, the sedan has grown by 23%, the heavy truck has increased by 51%, and the passenger car sales have increased by 22%.

However, even so, the industry is generally optimistic about the development of the "12th Five-Year Plan." Du Fangci, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sums up the term "demand." In his opinion, such a growth rate did not appear abruptly under the premise of 1.3 billion people.

“After a per capita income of more than 1,000 US dollars is the era when cars are rapidly entering the family, we have already passed this checkpoint. Our country has more than 300 million households. Like the United States, each family probably has 1 car. It probably With 200 million vehicles, if we maintain 200 million cars, it is probably only 2/3 of the families have cars. I think it will continue to develop. From a number of phenomena, passenger car production growth is lower than the demand growth rate. Du Fangci said.

In addition to the auto industry association holding a "see more" point of view, so does the OEM. Chen Hong, president of Shanghai Automotive (600104.SH), said in an interview with the "First Financial Daily": "For Chinese auto companies, it should be fortunate that this is a very big boost to SAIC's own development. SAIC has begun to consider how to achieve annual sales of 4 million (vehicles), and 3 million (vehicles) is no longer a threshold."

Chen Hong emphasized that since there are currently only 52 vehicles owned by thousands of people in China and less than half of the global average, there will certainly be a period of rapid growth.

Jia Xinguang, a senior expert in the automotive industry, also stated that the stage of popularization of automobiles for ordinary families in China has only just begun. This process will quickly start, but it must be prepared for related issues arising after the popularization of automobiles. The key is to be safe and environmentally friendly. , Save energy and work hard so that we can ensure the sustainable development of the automotive industry.

Self-reliance

Judging from this year's situation, the capacity utilization rate of mainstream passenger vehicle companies has reached a historically high level and has reached or reached saturation production. Data show that from January to August the capacity utilization rate of the automotive industry has reached 88%. Therefore, the expansion of production is still the most important thing for major car companies to invest their energy in the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

Shen Ningwu, a consultant of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that in the "12th Five-Year Plan" research project of the Chinese automobile industry commissioned by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers commissioned by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the overall train of thought and goals for the development of China's automobile industry during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is that the automobile industry will maintain With steady growth, the structural adjustment has achieved remarkable results, and the ability to independently innovate has been significantly enhanced. The self-owned brand products have dominated the domestic market, and have become an important base for auto exports and a major exporter in the world, and have comprehensively promoted their position in the global automotive industry.

Specific targets include: automobile production reached 25 million vehicles/year, motorcycle production reached 38 million vehicles/year; industry-wide industrial output value (annual) reached 4.5 trillion yuan, and the added value of the auto industry accounted for the gross domestic product (GDP). The proportion reaches 2.3%; the vehicle export accounts for 10% to 15% of the total automobile output (including overseas production products).

With the overall increase in sales of the automotive industry, industry concentration will also be synchronized, and industry concentration will be the key point for government departments during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. The total market share of the top five companies in the industry will be lower than that of 2010. The annual increase of 10%, and the formation of 3 to 4 large-scale enterprise groups with an annual output of more than 4 million.

In terms of products, the annual output of various hybrid passenger cars will reach 10% to 15% of the total passenger car production. Plug-in hybrid vehicles will be commercialized, and the annual output of all kinds of pure electric passenger vehicles will reach passenger use. 3% to 5% of the total vehicle production, small-scale demonstration and operation of fuel cell vehicles, and all kinds of alternative fuel vehicles are fully industrialized in the areas where conditions permit.

In general, efforts to achieve a doubling of car ownership are accompanied by an increase in fuel consumption of no more than 50%. In addition, the market share of self-owned brand passenger vehicles will reach 50%, of which the market share of self-owned brand cars will reach 40%. The expression of the market share of self-owned brands is also the first time to enter the industrial planning of our country.

Stronger Hengqiang

While the government entrusted the industry associations to formulate the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, major domestic auto makers are still in full swing to formulate plans for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

Up to now, some manufacturers have taken the lead in publishing their “Twelfth Five Year Plan”. Last year, China’s top ten automotive groups were: SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang’an, BAIC, GAC, Chery, BYD, Brilliance, Geely, plus Jianghuai and Great Wall, in the final year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, that is, in 2015, the total planned production capacity will reach about 32.5 million vehicles, and “appetite” is not small.

FAW Group plans to sell more than 4 million vehicles by 2015, of which the proportion of self-owned brands will exceed 50%. The responsible person of FAW Group stated that in the 12th Five-Year Plan of FAW, electric vehicles have become an important content, and the core technologies of 60 electric vehicles have become key breakthrough targets. With the large-scale research and development of new energy technologies, its "12th Five-Year Plan" research and development expenses will exceed 19 billion yuan.

Although SAIC Motor did not set specific targets, it has always stressed that it must maintain its 20% share of the market. This includes not only conventional power vehicles but also new energy vehicles. This means that at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, SAIC is likely to become the first domestic automobile company to break through 6 million vehicles.

By 2015, BAIC will strive to enter the top 15 of the world's automotive industry and enter the world's top 500. The BAIC Group plans to achieve a production and sales target of 3 million to 3.5 million vehicles in 2015. Among them, the production capacity of self-owned brand passenger cars will reach 700,000 units, and it will enter the first camp of independent brand automobile manufacturers.

Chery, Brilliance and Geely have set a target of selling 2 million vehicles by 2015. Among them, Chery emphasized that the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 50,000 vehicles and sales revenue will exceed RMB 90 billion. Even Great Wall Motor and Brilliance Automotive have set sales targets of 1.8 million and 1.5 million vehicles respectively.

In fact, at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the auto industry has already emerged as a strong and permanent player. “Small” companies, including Changfeng, Lifan, and Jiao, are in poor condition and either choose to be acquired. There is no scale effect. It is difficult to establish a foothold in the Chinese automobile market in the next five years.