Tungsten Trioxide,Blue Tungsten Trioxide Msds,Mercury Blue Tungsten Trioxide,Yellow Crystalline Powder HUNAN ZHONGNAN ANTIMONY&TUNGSTEN TRADING CO.,LTD , https://www.zhongnanats.com
As a rule, other international potash giants will follow the BPC's contract price to sign contracts with Chinese importers. Analysts said that the new contract price rose slightly lower than expected, but due to changes in the pricing mechanism, international price changes will be more quickly transmitted to the domestic, and international potash prices may continue to rise this year, integrated shipping costs are expected to rise and domestic demand recovery and other factors, It is expected that there will be one round of compensatory growth in domestic potash fertilizer prices.
The contract price is slightly lower than market expectations. "This year's contract price is slightly lower than the market expectation, which may be related to the strengthening of the domestic negotiation capacity." Analyst Liang Bin, an analyst at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with this reporter.
The reporter learned that the representatives of the Chinese side of this negotiation are composed of 10 companies that have the right to import and export potassium fertilizer, including Sinochem, China Agriculture, and CNOOC.
China Chemical Network analyst Zhang Ming believes that the price of 380-400 US dollars / ton should be able to support the domestic market in the 2650-3100 yuan / ton fluctuations, followed by the actual transaction price of Sinochem and Canadian potash may also be used as a benchmark, The transaction limit should not be higher than 420 US dollars.
However, BPC has started to increase the sales price of potash fertilizer to Brazil and Southeast Asian countries from November 8, 2010 to US$450 per ton, which is obviously higher than the supply price in the Chinese market.
The pricing mechanism was changed to semi-annual adjustment. Liu Xuming, a basic chemical analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that considering the domestic and international factors such as the potash monopoly pricing mechanism and the decline in shipping costs, it is also reasonable for China to conclude that the import contract price is lower than other markets. However, it is worth noting that the pricing mechanism has been changed from a one-year-one-year adjustment to a half-yearly adjustment, which means that the increase in international prices will be transmitted to China more quickly.
In Liang Bin’s view, changes in the pricing mechanism are “double-edged swordsâ€. If the international price of potash is to rise in the future, the new mechanism will be unfavorable to China, and vice versa.
International potash prices may continue to rise However, the above analysts believe that international potash prices may continue to rise this year. In Liu Xuming's view, fertilizer prices usually lag behind the rise in agricultural prices, while the monopolistic pattern of potash fertilizers lags behind in determining price increases. Taking into account that the global supply of potash fertilizer will be even tighter in 2011, and with the stability of agricultural products at a high level, it is inevitable that international potash prices will rise again. He expects the market price of overseas potash fertilizer to reach US$500/ton by the end of 2011, but it is still only 45% of the peak in 2008, and far below the increase in agricultural product prices.
Just last month, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) raised the global potash fertilizer demand forecast for the 2010-2011 period. The demand growth in 2010 and 2011 was 18.9% and 7.9% respectively. In the same period, the actual effective supply of potash fertilizer in the world is expected to increase by only 1.9% and 2.1% respectively.
It is worth noting that the recent BDI index is at the bottom, and the potassium chloride sea freight has fallen further. With the improvement of the international economy, sea freight is expected to rise from the bottom, and it has also become a driving factor in the price increase of the international potash fertilizer market. “International potash price increases will be transmitted to the domestic market. It is expected that the domestic potash fertilizer price will increase in one round. Domestic demand will also recover this year.†Liang Bin said.
“At present, under the premise of ensuring the operating rate and smooth traffic, relying on domestic manufacturers can meet the domestic demand for potash fertilizer in China, it is expected that the domestic potash fertilizer price increase will be limited in the first half of 2011,†said Zhang Ming. Liu Xuming believes that after the Spring Festival farmers prepare fertilizer will lead to domestic demand for potash fertilizer growth, when the potash fertilizer prices will be made up in place.
It was confirmed from the industry that Chinese importers recently signed a contract for the import of potassium chloride in 2011 with the potash giant Belarus Potash Corp. BPC. The pricing mechanism was changed from the previous year to the first half of the year. The contract price is US$400/tonne (CFR), an increase of 14%; the price will be discussed again in the second half of the year.