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[ China Agricultural Machinery Industry News ] China's manufacturing is not strong, this sentence is half.
Indeed, some Chinese industries have very large production volumes and high operating income, but the output value and profits are very low. This is a fact.
In the 2017 quarter, China’s branded mobile phone market accounted for 48% of the world’s total. That is, every time two humans buy two mobile phones, one is a Chinese brand. But if we talk about production value and profits, Chinese mobile phones can account for less than 48%.
Apple sold 215 million iPhones in 2016, accounting for 14.6% of the world. China's top three Huawei + OPPO + VIVO sold 315.7 million mobile phones last year, accounting for 21.6% of the world. Samsung sold 311 million mobile phones in 2016, accounting for 21.2% of the world.
However, compared to revenue, Apple's revenue from iphone in 2016 was $19.4 billion; Samsung's mobile division's revenue was $89.4 billion, and Huawei+OPPO+VIVO did not announce revenue from individual mobile phones. Huawei's consumer revenue. For the 178 billion yuan, even if it counts as the revenue of the mobile phone business, which is 25.8 billion US dollars (6.9 exchange rate), the revenue of OPPO and VIVO is about 20 billion US dollars (estimated value, VIVO is lower than OPPO), then three The sum is also $65 billion.
It can be seen that our quantity is larger than others, the income is lower than others, and the income is better than that. The output value and profit are more than that. This can be called big but not strong.
However, as a national of the world's large industrial countries, we must correctly understand the four words of big but not strong.
China is a country with a full industrial chain, and big but not strong is compared with the global strong in the industry.
Smartphones are an example. We say that big but not strong is compared with the strong US and South Korea in the industry, but we are bigger and stronger than other countries. No other country can surpass us in output value and profit. We are the world. The third strong.
Another example is construction machinery, which is also considered to be a big but not strong industry in China. The International Construction Magazine of the UK KHL Group announced the 2016 Top 50 Global Construction Machinery, and Chinese companies combined sales revenue accounted for 10.6% of the world, from construction machinery. Only the United States and Japan can earn more than the United States and Japan. The German construction machinery company accounts for 9.1% of the world's income. Although its income is lower than that of China, its output value should be higher than that of China, and it can also rank ahead of us. We are the fourth in the world.
Construction machinery in the domestic network should often be black as the United States, Japan and Europe machinery, but, how bad is China's fourth in the world, or that sentence, there are 24 developed countries in the world, China's fourth in the world is actually good, It is only that China is going to be a superpower. The fourth in the world obviously cannot satisfy our pursuit.
The cornerstone of big and strong, first big, then strong, with high output, with high operating income as the base, it is possible to have high output value and high profit, your business income is only 100 million yuan, how Is it possible to create a production value of 300 million yuan and a profit of 100 million yuan?
China's leading industries and enterprises in the world must be among the highest in the industry. On the contrary, all industries that have not developed in China are characterized by very low operating income.
From today's data, we can see which industries in China are far apart from the world. We mainly observe the amount of industrial products imported from China. It can also be seen from which China's localization of industries should be given priority.
In 2016, China’s total imports amounted to US$1,587.48 billion. Of course, about one-third of the total imports are various mineral raw materials and foods. For example, in 2016, we imported a variety of fruits and dried fruits of US$5.7 billion, and food and edible oils of US$43.86 billion. We spent about $50 billion on imported food.
Compared with food, we import more ore raw materials and oil and natural gas.
In 2016, China imported 57.66 billion US dollars of iron ore, 20.67 billion US dollars of copper, 14.15 billion US dollars of coal, 116.47 billion US dollars of crude oil, 11.14 billion US dollars of refined oil, 2.64 billion US dollars of fuel oil and 16.49 billion US dollars of natural gas. That is, we spent almost $220 billion to import various mineral raw materials.
In addition, it also bought 162.1 billion US dollars of logs, solid waste of 18.01 billion US dollars and so on.
To find out the gap between us and the world level, we still need to look at the import of industrial products. In 2016, China imported 1,177.33 billion US dollars of industrial products, accounting for 74.2% of imports.
We look at the imported industrial products, which are the goods with relatively large import value, so we can also know in which areas China should complete industrial upgrading and import substitution.
The following data comes from the General Administration of Customs of China.
The large imported industrial products are integrated circuits. In 2016, imports of US$227.1 billion accounted for 19.3% of the total imports of industrial products.
How big is the gap?
In 2016, China's major semiconductor company Hisilicon Semiconductor's sales were 30.3 billion yuan, according to the exchange rate of 6.9, 4.39 billion US dollars, while the world's largest semiconductor company's Intel revenue was 54.98 billion US dollars, a difference of 12.5 times.
Of course, HiSilicon is a pure design company, no factory, and Intel's design + manufacturing IDM is unfair, then we compare Haisi with the world's pure IC design name Qualcomm, Qualcomm 2016 revenue of 15.4 billion US dollars, It is 3.51 times that of HiSilicon.
In fact, HiSilicon's chip design is still based on the ARM architecture. China is truly a completely independent and controllable chip Godson. In 2015, the sales revenue was only 100 million yuan, and Intel was more than 1000 times the gap.
In the chip manufacturing field, China's major manufacturer SMIC had sales of US$2.9 billion in 2016, and the world's largest manufacturer TSMC had a record sales of US$29.765 billion in 2016, a 10-fold gap.
In the field of chip packaging, China's large packaging plant Changdian Technology's 2016 sales of 19.155 billion yuan, the world's largest packaging plant ASE, 2016 revenue of 62.8 billion yuan (at the end of April 2017 in accordance with the exchange rate of NT: renminbi = 4.377:1), The gap is 3.28 times.
Let's take a look at the upstream semiconductor production equipment. The semiconductor production equipment is not only used to produce chips for electronic products, but also our LED lamps and solar energy industry.
The world's largest companies are US Applied Materials, with revenues of US$7.94 billion in 2014, while China's leading enterprise, China Electronics Technology Group's two major research institutes, 45+48, combined revenues of 809 million yuan, a difference of 63 times ( The exchange rate for 2014 is in accordance with 6.4).
Looking at the picture above, I have a good news and a bad news. The bad news is that the semiconductor production equipment in China has a world market share of only 1%. The good news is that the major players in the world of semiconductor production equipment are the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands. Our country can be mixed to the fourth in the world.
What can we see?
In the chip design, the gap between us and the world is 3.5 times;
At the point of chip manufacturing, the gap between us and the world is 10 times;
At the point of the chip production equipment, the gap between us and the world is 63 times.
What does this mean? Only if our downstream domestic demand side is strong, can we promote the development of the upstream, and then straightforward, if the IC design companies such as HiSilicon, Spreadtrum, ZTE Microelectronics, Huada, Datang, etc. cannot develop Then, the manufacturing companies of SMIC and Hualiwei will not develop; if SMIC, Hualiwei, these manufacturing companies can't develop, then the upstream North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Semiconductor and other semiconductor production equipment suppliers. Don't even think about it.
The second largest industrial product imported by China is automobile and auto parts. In 2016, it imported US$74.61 billion, accounting for 6.34% of industrial imports.
We will check the world's top 500 data. In 2016, Fortune World 500 announced that the world's high-income auto company's German mass revenue was 236.6 billion US dollars, and the world's second is Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation, with revenue of 236.59 billion US dollars, almost no Up and down. However, what is the income of SAIC, the big Chinese auto company? 106.68 billion US dollars. The gap with the world is 2.22 times.
However, Shanghai Automotive Group's revenue is basically from joint venture brands. We take the 2017 quarter as an example. SAIC Group's total vehicle sales are about 1.656 million units, of which SAIC's own brand cars (not counting Wuling) sold only 118,000 units, with a ratio of 7.13. %, while Volkswagen, Toyota and so on are almost 100% self-owned brands.
According to the comparison of independent brand production, the self-owned brand company Changan Group with a high sales volume in 2016 was 1.28 million, while the world was 10.313 million Volkswagen, and the second in the world was 10.175 million Toyota.
Compared with the good world, China’s gap is eight times.
The total sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars in China in 2016 was 10.52 million units. The history last time exceeded Toyota's 10.175 million units and Volkswagen's 10.313 million units. In other words, a Toyota or a Volkswagen is equal to the sum of sales of independent brands in China.
We look at the auto parts again. In 2016, according to Forbes' list of the world's top auto parts manufacturers, the world's major auto parts company is the German Bosch Group, with revenue of 44.825 billion US dollars; and China's big auto parts manufacturers are Yanfeng Group. The revenue was 11.242 billion US dollars, and the gap was 4 times. However, please note that Yanfeng Group is doing car interiors, and the technical content is a bit embarrassing.
The top 100 global auto parts have only two Chinese companies, and one is CITIC Daika, with revenue of 2.43 billion US dollars. The difference between the name and the name is 18.45 times.
But everyone should not be discouraged. Many of our auto parts are under a certain group. For example, the diesel engine of Shandong Weichai is the subsidiary of Weichai Group. For example, BYD produces and sells its own engine. Chery also produces and sells its own engine. The same is also the Zhejiang Wanxiang Group. Wanxiang is not just doing auto parts, so it has not entered this ranking.
The third largest industrial product we import is instrumentation. In 2016, we imported a total of 44.96 billion US dollars. China, especially in the field of scientific research, relies heavily on importing scientific research equipment from abroad. Although domestic instrumentation has developed very rapidly in recent years, the gap is still overall. Very large, for example, basically laboratory research instruments are still dependent on imports.
In 2016, the revenue of China's instrumentation industry was only 935.54 billion yuan, and imports were more than 300 billion yuan. This figure is very amazing.
The fourth largest industrial product we imported is primary shape plastic. In 2016, it imported 41.32 billion US dollars. This may be what most people did not expect. The primary shape plastics include various chemicals that start with poly, such as polyethylene and polypropylene. , epoxy resin, polycarbonate, etc.
There are no high-tech products in the primary shape plastic, of course, but in general, this is a low-end industrial product.
In 2016, China imported 25.7 million tons of primary plastics, including 9.943 million tons of polyethylene. Then, from which countries is the polyethylene products imported from China, mainly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, of which Iran accounted for 28% of the total. Saudi Arabia accounted for 26%, ranking second, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for 18%, ranking third, followed by Singapore, Thailand and Qatar, all of which are basically third world countries.
For example, polypropylene (including propylene-ethylene polymer) imported 4.57 million tons in 2016. The domestic production capacity of polypropylene increased sharply in the past seven or eight years. In 2010, China's import dependence (the proportion of imports accounted for consumption) was as high as 34%. In 2015, it has fallen to 16%. The three major source countries imported from China are South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, of which South Korea imports more, mainly for electronics manufacturing. Saudi Arabia imports basic basic materials and is cheap. Singapore imports are used to make man-made fibers.
Display panel, this is the fifth largest industrial product imported from China. In 2016, the total import value was 31.85 billion US dollars. Because the primary plastics and instruments in the front are all big categories, it can be said that the liquid crystal display panel is the third largest import in China. Industrial products.
In 2016, China's leading company, BOE's revenue was 68.8 billion yuan.
In 2016, the world's largest display company Samsung showed revenue of 163.2 billion yuan (according to the exchange rate of the Korean won to 165 yuan), the difference was 2.37 times.
The gap between the upstream is larger, see my article on the display panel industry chain.
The sixth largest industrial product imported from China is automatic data processing equipment and its components. In 2016, it imported US$27.83 billion.
Everyone may be thinking about what it is, including industrial and civilian computers and their components, such as hard drives, hard drives, computers, CD-ROM drives, graphics cards, sound cards and more. Can't think of this thing imported so much?
When we were playing desktop computers, we thought about it. The host + monitor, the chassis is made in China. From the CPU, motherboard, hard disk, video card, sound card, memory, all are Taiwan or foreign, this is getting better today, because of personal use. Computer sales are declining, and some components have been localized. For example, there are many domestic displays, and Ziguang and Western Digital have also established joint ventures. In China, for example, Great Wall Technology Co., Ltd. has a revenue of 69.1 billion yuan in 2016.
In fact, most of today's computer machines and parts are produced in mainland China, and many of them are factories set up by Chinese Taiwanese companies in mainland China.
The seventh largest industrial product imported from China is unwrought copper and copper. In 2016, it imported US$26.38 billion, but this is mainly a resource-based primary industrial product.
The eighth largest industrial product imported from China is pharmaceuticals. In 2016, it imported US$22.09 billion. In fact, China attaches great importance to the localization of drugs. Because the health of 1.4 billion people is not trivial, there are still drugs that need to rely on imports.
If you add the raw materials of western medicine, the import value will be as high as 29.546 billion US dollars, which can rank sixth.
The ninth largest industrial product imported by China is aircraft and aircraft. In 2016, it imported 20.3 billion US dollars. Why should we independently develop ARJ21 and C919, because this is the top 10 industrial products imported.
In the field of civil aviation, if we have to compare with Boeing and Airbus, our big plane is zero. However, on May 5, 2017, everyone knew what was going on, and the C919 made its first flight.
The tenth largest industrial product imported from China is electronic components. In 2016, it imported US$20.01 billion.